Iran seen as increasingly bellicose in Gulf
Iran seen as increasingly bellicose in Gulf
By Youssef Azmeh
DUBAI (Reuter): Iran, hurt by a fall in oil prices it blames on Saudi Arabia, is adopting aggressive attitudes that could fuel tensions in the Gulf, diplomats said on Wednesday.
They saw uncompromising statements on Tuesday against Riyadh on oil and the Moslem Haj, and rejecting negotiations on sovereignty over three islands disputed with the United Arab Emirates, as the latest evidence of a tough, new mood in Teheran.
"They (the Iranians) seem to feel that there is little point left in appeasing Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies," one Western diplomat said.
A strong radio commentary on the islands followed equally forthright attacks on Saudi Arabia for its opposition to oil cuts at weekend OPEC talks and for restricting the number of Iranian pilgrims to this year's annual Moslem Haj.
"These statements don't mean an early fist fight. But they do mean choppy waters ahead," the diplomat said.
Others agreed in ruling out armed confrontation at this stage. But they said they were monitoring events closely in a volatile region bristling with the world's most sophisticated conventional weaponry.
"The Iranians are incensed by the Saudi attitude at OPEC," another diplomat said, noting that Oil Minister Gholamreza Aqazadeh has blamed Riyadh for a $3.5 billion shortfall in Iranian oil revenues last year.
Oil income in the Iranian year ended on March 21 was $13.5 billion compared with a budgeted $17 billion. Iran was forced by low oil prices to cut its 1994 forecast to $10 billion.
The diplomats said this was serious indeed for a country dependent on oil for the vast bulk of its foreign earning. It has yet to emerge from serious financial difficulties caused by economic chaos during the early days of the Islamic revolution and eight years of war with Iraq that ended in 1988.
"They see it as part of a U.S.-inspired conspiracy to weaken the Islamic republic," the diplomat said.
He said Iranian officials say Saudi Arabia, like Iran, is short of cash and it is in its interest to maximize revenues.
Riyadh's attitude must, therefore, have been dictated by U.S. allies who want to punish Iran and overthrow its ruling mullah.
Iran also resents Saudi Arabia's eight million barrels a day output as an unfair share of OPEC oil output. It says more than a third of that is a windfall gained when Saudi Arabia replaced lost Iraqi and Kuwait exports during the 1990 Gulf crisis.
This reasoning is not accepted by many oil experts. They attribute the Saudi stand to a policy decision to maintain long- term world oil market share against producers inside and outside OPEC who in the past rushed in to replace Saudi oil whenever it agreed to cut output.
"The Iranians are indeed hurting but they cannot blame it all on their neighbors. People in the region only hope their anger does not lead to anything stupid," one expert said.
Experts say Iran's cash-flow problem is due to a combination of domestic policy failures and a weak oil market skeptical of OPEC's ability to hold the line on prices and production.
But its neighbors do not feel any urge to help it out. It lost goodwill in the region when it upset the status quo by flexing its military muscle in 1992 on the island of Abu Musa, which it shared with the UAE, provoking Abu Dhabi to revive its claim to two other islands seized by Iran in 1971.
Teheran also pushed Saudi Arabia to strictly implement a quota on Iranian pilgrims after its defiance last year of a ban on political rallies at the Haj, they said.
Iran has complained bitterly it has been asked to limit the number of pilgrims this year to below 60,000 under a quota system meant to ease congestion in Mecca and Medina while work is underway to expand facilities at Moslem holy cites.
The diplomats said Saudi Arabia had unofficially allowed Iran to send double its quota of pilgrims over the past three years as a goodwill gesture after relations were restored in 1991. This was meant to make room for Iranian pilgrims who were unable to perform the Haj in the previous three years when relations were cut and Iran boycotted the annual event.
After the Iranian defiance of the ban on political meetings last year, Riyadh was insisting on strict observance of the quota and has made clear it would not consider Iran's proposal to send 120,000 pilgrims to this year's Haj in May, they added.
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