Iran-Israel War Pressures Rupiah Exchange Rate; Could It Break Through Rp17,000 per US Dollar?

Currency analyst Lukman Leong of Doo Financial Futures projects that the Indonesian rupiah will weaken on Monday 2 March 2026 as a result of military conflict between Iran and the United States. The rupiah is predicted to weaken in the range of Rp16,750–Rp16,900 per US dollar. The depreciation of the Indonesian currency is caused by market participants’ tendency to avoid risky assets and move funds to assets considered safer.

“The rupiah is expected to weaken and move volatilely against the US dollar amid risk-off sentiment from the escalation of conflict in the Middle East,” Lukman said in Jakarta on Monday 2 March 2026.

Nevertheless, he continued, Bank Indonesia is expected to conduct intervention soon. The rupiah exchange rate at the opening of trading in Jakarta on Monday morning moved weaker by 42 points or 0.25 per cent to Rp16,829 per US dollar from the previous close recorded at Rp16,787 per US dollar.

It was previously reported that on Saturday morning 28 February local time, the United States and Israel launched a series of attacks on Iran, including the capital Tehran, resulting in infrastructure damage and civilian casualties. Iran subsequently launched retaliatory missile strikes on Israeli territory and US military facilities in the Middle East.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was confirmed killed following US-Israeli missile strikes on his workplace. Following Khamenei’s death, the Iranian government announced a 40-day mourning period and a week-long work suspension. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Iranian Armed Forces vowed in written statements to avenge Khamenei’s death.