Iran Ceasefire Fails to Take Effect, Oil Prices Still Breach Rp2.1 Million per Barrel

Global crude oil prices are still showing significant upward pressure despite easing geopolitical tensions. The ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran appears insufficient to restore supply disruptions caused by the conflict over the past five weeks.

The latest data indicates that spot prices for Brent crude for prompt delivery have surged significantly. This condition signals that global oil supplies remain extremely tight, even as the conflict begins to subside on paper.

Spot cargo prices for Brent crude reached US$124.68 per barrel, equivalent to Rp2,119,560 on Wednesday (exchange rate Rp17,000). This price reflects the actual conditions in the physical market, namely oil deliveries within the next 10 to 30 days.

In comparison, the June Brent futures contract closed at US$94.75 per barrel, equivalent to Rp1,610,750. The difference of nearly US$30, or about Rp508,810 per barrel, shows that the physical market is far tighter than forward market expectations.

Although spot prices have fallen by around US$19.75, equivalent to Rp335,750, in the two weeks following the ceasefire agreement, the level remains high. This indicates that supply disruptions have not fully recovered.

Founder of Energy Aspects, Amrita Sen, emphasised that the current oil market conditions are far from normal. “This is really chaotic,” she stated, as quoted by CNBC on Thursday, 9 April 2026.

According to her, actual cargo prices reflect the reality on the ground and sea distribution routes. Oil production in the Middle East is reported to have dropped to 13 million barrels per day due to a collapse in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Most tankers are now rerouting to the United States to pick up oil supplies from there. This route change is estimated to take until June before returning to normal in the Middle East region.

Kpler analyst focusing on the Middle East and OPEC, Amena Bakr, stated that hundreds of millions of barrels of oil have been removed from the market due to the conflict. The recovery process is not expected to happen quickly.

“This depends on how long this ceasefire lasts,” she said.