iPhone Crisis Looms as Rp 8,900 Trillion in Value Could Vanish Instantly
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The global memory chip shortage has already battered the smartphone industry, particularly Chinese manufacturers that have long targeted the mid-to-low segment. Rising component prices, fuelled by high demand for memory chips for artificial intelligence (AI) systems, have forced vendors to scramble to secure supplies whilst squeezing their margins.
Several manufacturers could no longer hold prices steady and were compelled to raise the prices of their products. Amid a shaken global economy, this has had an immediate impact on declining consumer purchasing power.
Counterpoint’s report for Q2 2026 shows global smartphone shipments fell sharply by 11% year-on-year (YoY). Three veteran Chinese vendors – Xiaomi, Oppo and vivo – all recorded double-digit shipment declines.
Nevertheless, Samsung and Apple, known as flagship device vendors that have long dominated the top spots in global smartphone market share, still managed to post positive growth throughout Q2 2026.
Samsung retained its position as the ‘king’ of global smartphones in Q2 2026. The South Korean manufacturer captured a 24% market share in Q2 2026, up from 20% in Q2 2025.
Apple meanwhile occupied second place with a 20% market share in Q2 2026, higher than its 17% share in Q2 2025. Apple was also the only major smartphone maker that did not raise its prices during the quarter.
A Valuation of Rp 8,900 Trillion at Risk of Evaporating
However, Samsung and Apple’s stellar performance may not continue into the future. Analysts and industry players predict the memory chip shortage driving component prices higher will persist – and worsen – until 2028.
Apple shares plunged nearly 10% in trading on Friday (31 July). The sell-off by investors was triggered by disappointing company performance projections due to the component supply crisis, engulfed by the explosion of AI-based data centres battering the global supply chain.
If the downward trend continues, it would mark Apple’s worst daily performance since the massive sell-off at the start of the pandemic in March 2020. The Cupertino tech giant’s market capitalisation could evaporate by as much as US$500 billion (around Rp 8,900 trillion).
Beyond that, Apple’s throne as the world’s most valuable company is at risk of being reclaimed by AI chip giant Nvidia just days after Apple had secured it.
Tim Cook Throws in the Towel
Supply chain supremo and Apple CEO Tim Cook acknowledged that the current component shortage has reached a ‘very significant’ stage. He asserted that Apple’s options for escaping the crisis are extremely limited.
Cook made the statement in his final earnings call as CEO, before handing the reins of the company to John Ternus in September and transitioning to Executive Chairman.
‘If a company as large as Apple admits it has run out of supply chain flexibility, this is a danger signal for the industry,’ warned Ben Bajarin, CEO of technology consultancy Creative Strategies.
The phenomenon of Big Tech hoarding advanced microchip and memory production capacity to support AI data centres has triggered a supply crisis and price surge. As a result, the global PC and smartphone markets are predicted to shrink throughout the year.
Stock Depleted – iPhones and MacBooks at Risk of Scarcity?
Apple had initially cushioned the impact of the memory price surge by relying on its pile of inventory reserves. However, Cook revealed that this buffer is now thinning. The processor shortage has made it difficult for Apple to meet high demand for iPhones and Macs in the market.
Warning signs grew clearer after Apple projected revenue growth for the current quarter in the range of 9% to 11%. That figure missed Wall Street estimates, which had pencilled in growth of around 12%.
Worse still, Apple’s services business line recorded a slowdown, overshadowing an otherwise impressive set of second-quarter (June) financial results.
Services Business Makes Investors Nervous
The sluggishness of the services business has sparked serious concern among investors. The slowdown comes despite strong iPhone sales, which have long been the ‘money-printing machine’ for derivative services such as the App Store, Apple Music and Apple TV.
The pressure could grow heavier if iPhone sales shrink due to potential price increases when the new product line launches in September.
‘Apple’s dominance over the supply chain is now in question. There is no clear evidence yet that AI provides a measurable tailwind for its products or services,’ said the Morgan Stanley analyst team.
‘In fact, the weakness of the App Store could indicate that users’ attention and time are starting to be diverted by AI applications,’ they added.
Nevertheless, a number of analysts consider the iPhone line resilient enough to withstand price increases without drastically eroding demand. The instalment (leasing) scheme partnership with Klarna in the United States is also seen as a cushion against declining sales.
As a result of this dynamic, at least four global brokerages cut their target prices for Apple shares, whilst three others chose to raise their targets. LSEG data shows the median target price for Apple shares now stands at US$330, or US$3 below the last closing price. Year-to-date, Apple shares are still up 22.7% as of Thursday’s close.