IPB Professor Confirms Government Rice Data is Valid, Rice Self-Sufficiency Can Be Achieved
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA – IPB University Professor, Prof. Hermanto Siregar, has emphasised that the national rice stock reported by the government is trustworthy and has undergone direct field verification.
The statement refers to the surprise inspection (sidak) conducted by President Prabowo Subianto at a Perum Bulog warehouse in Magelang on Saturday (18/4). During the visit, President Prabowo found the warehouse full of rice with a capacity of 7,000 tonnes.
“So, the data provided by the government, both from the Ministry of Agriculture and Bulog, is indeed accurate,” said Hermanto on Tuesday (21/4/2026).
In addition, he stated that the sidak confirmed the government’s previously announced food reserve data while refuting doubts about National Food Self-Sufficiency.
“If it’s a sidak, it’s a sudden inspection, not fabricated. The results of the President’s sidak show that the warehouse is indeed full. So, the President’s visit to the Bulog warehouse is, in a manner of speaking, a verification,” he said.
According to him, it would be highly risky for the government to manipulate food data because the impact would be directly felt by the public. Therefore, he believes the reported rice stock figures reflect the real conditions on the ground.
Hermanto explained that the reserve figure of 4.8 million tonnes did not appear out of nowhere but is the result of measured calculations. The stock comes from previous accumulations minus distributions, plus the harvest results that have been ongoing since the beginning of 2026.
“Up to April, the harvest is still ongoing. That means the rice stock will continue to increase, especially heading into the peak harvest in April–May, and will rise again in the next harvest season in August–September,” he clarified.
He also outlined Bulog’s stock management mechanism. During the harvest season, Bulog absorbs paddy or rice from farmers to strengthen reserves. Conversely, when market supply decreases, Bulog conducts market operations by distributing stock to keep prices stable and meet public needs.
With a stock condition reaching 4.8 million tonnes, Hermanto assesses that Indonesia’s chances of not importing rice this year are quite high. However, he cautioned that this still depends on climate factors.
“If the climate is not extreme, for example, no severe El Niño occurs, then our chances of not importing are very open. Moreover, there is still the August harvest that can add to the reserves,” he said.
Furthermore, he views the President’s sidak as an important step to strengthen public confidence in national food data, while also addressing doubts regarding the achievement of food self-sufficiency.
“With the sidak, the President directly verifies the conditions on the ground. This is important to refute public doubts about rice availability and efforts towards food self-sufficiency,” he concluded.