Investors Monitor Mineral Downstreaming as Support for Mining Stock Prospects
The prospects for state-owned mining stocks are supported not only by expectations for first-half 2026 financial performance but also by the development of mineral downstream projects, which are considered vital for long-term growth. Investors are currently monitoring the extent to which the acceleration of these strategic projects can strengthen issuer fundamentals and support stock movements in the second half of this year.
Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, Nafan Aji Gusta, stated that investors are beginning to focus on the progress of mineral downstream projects by issuers under the MIND ID umbrella. According to him, downstream projects, capital expenditure direction, and the demand prospects for nickel and coal will be determining factors for the future prospects of state-owned mining stocks.
“If realised performance can exceed market expectations, the opportunity for share price appreciation remains open,” Nafan said in Jakarta.
He noted that sentiment from second-quarter 2026 financial reports remains the primary catalyst for mining sector stocks. However, the sustainability of downstream projects will serve as an important pillar for the long-term prospects of issuers, as they are capable of increasing commodity value-add and strengthening corporate competitiveness.
One strategic project already in progress is the bauxite-alumina-aluminium processing and refining facility in Mempawah, West Kalimantan. This project is being developed by MIND ID alongside PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium (INALUM) and PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM), with PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) serving as the energy supplier. The integrated facility consists of Smelter Grade Alumina Refinery (SGAR) Phase II, with a capacity of 1 million metric tonnes of alumina per year, and a new aluminium smelter with a capacity of 600,000 metric tonnes of aluminium per year. The presence of these facilities is expected to strengthen the independence of the national aluminium industry from upstream to downstream.
In the nickel sector, PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) is also accelerating the construction of the High Pressure Acid Leaching (HPAL) Sambalagi facility in Morowali, Central Sulawesi. The project has entered a critical phase with the arrival of key autoclave components, which are central to the processing of limonite nickel ore. The Sambalagi HPAL plant is being built across three production lines—Line A, B, and C—with a target of achieving first mechanical completion by the end of 2026. This project is viewed as a strategic step to strengthen nickel downstreaming and support the development of the electric vehicle battery ecosystem in Indonesia.
Meanwhile, research from BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) projects that revenues for metal mining issuers in the second quarter of 2026 will reach US$4.5 billion, representing a 12 per cent growth quarter-on-quarter (qoq) and 38 per cent year-on-year (yoy). This increase is attributed more to selling prices, timing of sales, inventory movements, and product mix rather than a comprehensive recovery in production volume.
As an initial indicator, several mining issuers under MIND ID recorded solid profit growth in the first quarter of 2026. ANTM booked a profit of Rp 3.66 trillion, INCO recorded a 100 per cent surge in net profit to US$43.6 million, TINS recorded an operating profit of Rp 1.88 trillion, while PTBA achieved a current year profit of Rp 801.79 billion, an increase of 105 per cent compared to the same period last year.