Investors Await MSCI Announcement, IHSG Opens with 1.21% Plunge

Jakarta - The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) opened weaker on Thursday (18/6/2026), extending the correction recorded in the previous session. Based on IDX Mobile data at 09:00 WIB, the IHSG opened at 6,191.89, down 28.85 points or 0.46% from the previous close of 6,220.74. Minutes after the market opened, the IHSG fell sharply, plunging 1.21% to 6,144.55. A total of 219 stocks rose, 93 stocks fell, and 295 stocks were stagnant. Transaction value reached Rp 174.44 billion, with a trading volume of 193.04 million shares changing hands 28,834 times. The most actively traded issuers today included BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, TPIA, and BRMS.

Domestic and global financial market movements in the second half of this week are entering a crucial phase. Market participants are now shifting focus to several major macroeconomic agendas that could determine the direction of foreign capital flows and exchange rate stability. The interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve and Bank Indonesia will be the market’s main focus today.

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the June 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. However, the US central bank signalled increasingly strongly that a rate hike is still possible this year as inflation remains well above the 2% target. In its official statement, the Fed stated that US economic activity is still growing solidly. Meanwhile, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Therefore, the Fed reaffirmed its commitment to restoring price stability. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasised the central bank’s commitment to returning inflation to target. In its latest statement, the Fed also removed all forward guidance on interest rate direction, marking a change in approach under Warsh’s leadership.

On the domestic front, the fundamental agenda drawing attention on Thursday’s trading is the announcement of the final results of Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors Meeting. The majority of market participants expect Bank Indonesia (BI) to raise its benchmark interest rate again at this Board of Governors Meeting (RDG), which took place on 17-18 June 2026. However, the margin is now narrowing. Of the 14 institutions participating in the CNBC Indonesia poll, eight expect the BI Rate to rise by 25 basis points to 5.75%, while six other institutions expect BI to hold the rate at 5.50%. Based on these results, the median projection in the CNBC Indonesia poll stands at 5.75%.

After responding to Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy direction today, the focus of global investment managers and domestic institutions will immediately turn to the MSCI Global Market Accessibility Review, scheduled for release on Friday (19/6/2026) early morning. The results of this annual review have massive implications as they evaluate the accessibility level of capital markets in various countries along with the quality of their market infrastructure. For the Indonesian equity market, this early morning announcement is always a crucial highlight. Any adjustment to market classification methodology, special treatment of equity instruments, or review related to regulations on public share weight limits or free float rules will have a structural impact on the portfolio composition of global passive mutual funds. This decision has the potential to trigger adjustments in investment positions with large transaction volumes. It also has the potential to create liquidity and share price volatility for mega-capitalisation issuers on the Indonesia Stock Exchange at the end of the week’s trading. In addition to the Accessibility Review, MSCI will also soon release the MSCI Annual Market Classification Review on Wednesday (24/6/2026) early morning.

Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific stock markets opened higher on Thursday (18/6/2026), although market participants are still digesting the results of the latest meeting of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve. The market strengthening occurred after the Fed held its benchmark rate but signalled that a rate hike is still possible this year. US stock futures moved higher in Wednesday evening local trading. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 gained 0.4%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 73 points, or slightly above 0.1%. In the Asian region, South Korea’s Kospi index surged 0.89% to a new record high. Technology giant SK Hynix soared 3.45% to an all-time high, while Samsung Electronics rose 1.23%, although the small-cap Kosdaq index fell 0.5%. The Japanese market also recorded impressive performance, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 1.35% and breaching the 71,000 level for the first time in history. The Topix index also strengthened 1.27%, while Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index moved relatively flat. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng futures were at 24,200, lower than the previous close of 24,312.16, indicating potential weakness at the market open.