Investment Prospects for 2026 Government Securities Remain Open Despite High Yield Levels

The potential of the Government Securities (SBN) market is predicted to remain prospective throughout 2026. This condition persists even though the yield or rate of return is still holding at a relatively high position.

Data on movements shows a fairly significant upward trend in yields. At the beginning of the year, specifically on 2 January 2026, the 10-year tenor SBN yield was recorded at 6.04%. However, this figure surged to 6.84% on 25 March 2026.

Quoted from Investasi, Yusuf Rendy Manilet, Economist at the Center of Reform on Economics Indonesia (CORE), stated that the opportunity for foreign fund flows into the domestic bond market remains very wide open.

“The potential for capital inflow still exists, especially if there is clarity in policy direction, both fiscal and monetary, as well as more stable exchange rate stability. In addition, Indonesia’s real yield attractiveness is still competitive among emerging market countries,” said Yusuf.

Yusuf noted that the movement of SBN yields will not experience extreme shifts in the near term. Volatility is expected to continue to haunt the market, particularly during the first semester of 2026.

“There is room for decline, but it is likely to occur gradually,” said Yusuf, explaining the current market situation.

CORE’s analysis indicates a shift in the yield base point to a higher level. This is evident from the 10-year SBN yield position, which is now stable in the 6.8% to 6.9% range.

The consolidation phase is predicted to be the main pattern of market movement in the first half of this year. A tendency for yield decline is expected to occur on a fairly limited scale.

Specifically, the 10-year tenor SBN yield is projected to fluctuate between 6.5% and 7.0%. In the baseline scenario prepared, the figure is most likely to move in the middle point of 6.6% to 6.9%.

There are restraining mechanisms that prevent wild yield increases, one of which is Bank Indonesia’s intervention in maintaining market stability. Valuation at the current level is also considered to be starting to attract market participants again.

However, obstacles to yield decline still arise from domestic sentiment, including perceptions of fiscal risk and rupiah exchange rate fluctuations. Global uncertainty factors also remain variables that bond investors must beware of.

“If sentiment improves and foreign fund flows return, yields have the potential to fall approaching 6.5%. Conversely, if pressure increases, yields could still approach 7%,” said Yusuf.