Interceptor Missiles Depleted: Would the US Lose a War with China Within Days?
In modern warfare, victory is not determined solely by the number of soldiers or fighter jets. The availability of air defence missiles has also become a crucial factor. Amid this need, the United States and its allies are facing a worrying situation. Their air defence missile stockpiles are dwindling after being used in very large quantities during the war against Iran. The impact has spread to Europe. Ukraine, still at war with Russia, is finding it increasingly difficult to face attacks by Vladimir Putin’s forces. Deliveries of air defence missiles to several countries are also at risk of delay. The ability of the US to face a potential conflict with China is now being questioned.
According to The Economist, the interceptor missile crisis is one of the biggest problems currently facing Western countries. Production capacity that has not been able to keep pace with demand means missile stockpiles are estimated to recover only in the coming years.
According to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Pentagon has used almost two-thirds of its Patriot missile stockpile from before the war against Iran. Patriot is one of the most important air defence systems for the US and its allies. The system is used to protect cities, military bases and various strategic facilities from missile attacks. Before the war, the US Patriot missile stockpile was estimated at around 2,330 units. However, most of that stockpile was used during the period from 27 February to 16 August 2026. Other interceptor missiles were also depleted, including SM-3, THAAD and SM-6. Patriot stockpiles are estimated to have fallen by around two-thirds. For THAAD, estimated usage reached around 40%-50% of pre-war stocks. Meanwhile, SM-3 usage is estimated to be in the range of about one-third to more than half of initial stocks.
This crisis is not limited to defensive missiles. CSIS also estimates that the US has used about one-third of its Tomahawk cruise missile stockpile. Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) stockpiles are even estimated to be nearly exhausted. The missile is one of the long-range weapons used to strike strategic targets. The depletion of these stockpiles is said to help explain why US President Donald Trump has several times backed away from threats to go to war with Iran again.
Ukraine is one of the countries most affected by the Patriot missile crisis. Russian ballistic missile attacks have forced Kyiv residents back into metro stations and car parks for shelter. In March 2026, Ukraine was still able to intercept around 70% of Russian ballistic missiles. The figure fell to 20% in July. On the night of 5 August, not a single ballistic missile was successfully intercepted. Ukraine has layered defences to deal with drones and cruise missiles. However, Russian ballistic missiles such as the Iskander-M and Kinzhal require more advanced interceptor systems, such as Patriot. Ahead of winter, Ukraine requested at least 300 additional Patriot missiles. However, European countries that still have stockpiles, including Germany, Greece, Poland and Spain, are increasingly cautious about providing them.
Limited stockpiles are also disrupting missile deliveries to US allies. Switzerland estimates its Patriot order could be delayed by up to seven years, while Taiwan is concerned that its 102 ordered missiles will not arrive on schedule in 2026. Lockheed Martin, the producer of the Patriot PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE), cannot guarantee delivery times to foreign customers because the Pentagon has the authority to divert missiles for US military needs. Demand for Patriot continues to rise. Saudi Arabia is one of the largest buyers, with purchase approvals for around 1,500 PAC-3 missiles from 2004 to July 2026. Poland, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Germany and Taiwan also have large orders.
A single Patriot PAC-3 MSE missile costs around US$4 million to US$5 million. Its value is often higher than the ballistic missile it intercepts, especially when used against cheap drones such as the Shahed. Colonel Sabah Al Sabah, a Kuwaiti military officer, described the imbalance at a Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) event. “If the adversary can deploy attack drones at the price of a used car, while your answer is an air defence missile priced like a small flat in London, you lose the cost exchange even if you win every battle,” he said. Stockpiles are also quickly depleted because defence forces typically fire at least two interceptor missiles to deal with one enemy missile. The manufacturer plans to increase PAC-3 production from around 600 units to 2,000 units per year in the early 2030s. However, increasing capacity takes time, and the Pentagon is said not to have signed contracts to accelerate production. CSIS estimates that US Patriot stockpiles will only recover in 2029, assuming Congress approves the US$1.5 trillion defence budget proposed by Trump.
A number of countries are beginning to seek alternatives to reduce dependence on US production. Japan produces around 30 PAC-3 missiles per year under licence, while European defence company MBDA is preparing to produce Patriot PAC-2 in Germany. France and Italy are developing the SAMP-T system, but Ukrainian military sources assess its capabilities as still below Patriot. Ukrainian company Fire Point is also developing alternatives.