Inflation in March 2026 Projected at 3.5-3.6 Percent: Economic Think Tank
Inflation in March 2026 Projected at 3.5-3.6 Percent: Economic Think Tank
01 Apr 2026 06:38 WIB
Voice of Indonesia
Poin Utama
The Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia projects March 2026 inflation to be around 0.6 percent month-to-month (mtm) and 3.5–3.6 percent year-on-year (yoy).
Inflationary pressure in March 2026 stemmed from increased demand during the Eid al-Fitr holiday period.
RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - Domestic inflationary pressures in Indonesia in March 2026 are expected to remain under control despite seasonal factors driving a monthly increase. The Eid al-Fitr holiday and energy price adjustments were key influences on national inflation trends.
The Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia projected March inflation at around 0.6 percent month-to-month (mtm) and 3.5–3.6 percent year-on-year (yoy). This projection indicates a lower annual trend compared to February 2026, when inflation reached 4.76 percent yoy.
CORE Indonesia Executive Director Mohammad Faisal explained that the decline in annual inflation was influenced by the low-base effect from the electricity tariff discount policy implemented in January–February 2025. The impact of that policy had previously driven annual inflation higher at the start of 2026.
“But after the discount period ended in February, there was a month-to-month surge in inflation in March,” Faisal said in Jakarta on Tuesday, April 1, 2026, as quoted by Antara.
He added that inflationary pressure also stemmed from increased demand during the Eid al-Fitr holiday. Rising food prices and transportation fares during the annual exodus season further fueled monthly inflation. “Especially during Eid al-Fitr, food prices—particularly food components—rose, and transportation costs also increased due to the exodus season,” he explained.
Price adjustments for non-subsidized petroleum products (BBM) since March 1 also contributed to inflation. In Greater Jakarta, the price of Pertamax (RON 92) increased to IDR 12,300 per liter (USD 0.73), while Pertamax Green (RON 95) rose to IDR 12,900 per liter. Pertamax Turbo (RON 98) climbed to IDR 13,100 per liter, Dexlite (CN 51) to IDR 14,200 per liter, and Pertamina Dex (CN 53) to IDR 14,500 per liter.
The government emphasized that fuel prices will remain stable in the near term to protect public purchasing power.
CORE Indonesia assessed that this policy is important to mitigate the impact of global turmoil, including geopolitical conflicts affecting the economy. “The policy to maintain purchasing power is extremely important in this context, while also considering allocations for social assistance as an emergency response to safeguard vulnerable groups,” Faisal said.
The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) is scheduled to release official March 2026 inflation data on Wednesday, April 1, at 11 a.m. Jakarta Time. This data will serve as a key indicator of short-term price stability. ***
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