Inflation 0.08% in November: BPS
Inflation 0.08% in November: BPS
JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia's monthly inflation rate rose to 0.08
percent in November from deflation of 0.27 percent in October,
sending the year-on-year inflation rate to 78.15 percent, the
Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) announced on Monday.
BPS deputy chairman Kusmadi Saleh attributed the slight
inflation to rising prices of processed food, beverages,
cigarettes and tobacco by 0.69 percent.
He said that a 1.02 percent increase in the health index and
0.48 percent rise in the housing index contributed to the
inflation.
He, however, added that a 0.18 percent decline in prices of
raw foodstuffs helped to limit inflation despite rising political
tension during the month.
The government expects the inflation level for the whole of
1998 to be 80 percent.
"Prices of several commodities in the food category continued
to decline," Kusmadi told reporters at a media conference.
He said the average price of rice declined 0.23 percent, gold
and jewelry 0.21 percent, and cooking oil, sugar, fresh fish and
chicken meat 0.12 percent.
"Despite the social and political unrest during the second
half of November, the average price of rice in the month was
relatively lower than the average in October," Kusmadi added.
He said inflation for January to November was 75.14 percent,
while for the first eight months of the fiscal year from April to
November was 37.78 percent.
Asked whether the government target of 80 percent inflation
throughout the year could be achieved, he said: "It all depends
on what happens in December. Bad things beyond our control can
always occur."
He pointed to food production and distribution which could be
disrupted by continuing political and social unrest.
Another worrying factor was the ability of the government to
provide the necessary imports for the production of agriculture
products, he added.
He explained that based on the empirical data collated over
the past 10 years, inflation in December was always higher than
in November .
"I'm certain that inflation in December will be higher, even
though the political and social situation is improving," he said,
citing the higher demand for goods due to the Christmas and New
Year celebrations and the Moslem fasting month.
Inflation in December 1997 was 2.04 percent compared to 1.65
percent in November.
Kusmadi also said that the government target of 10 percent
inflation 1999 would be achievable as long as political and
social stability could be maintained.
He was less optimistic, however, about the government's
positive Gross Domestic Product growth projection for next year.
"I think it's too optimistic. The most likely figure will be a
contraction of 2 percent," he said.
He said that his forecast on 1998 GDP was a contraction of
13.54 percent, compared to the government estimate of 15 percent
negative growth.
BPS also announced a trade surplus of US$1.78 billion in
September, resulting from exports of $3.99 billion against
imports of $2.22 billion.
Oil and gas exports were $642.8 million, while non-oil and gas
exports were $3.36 billion.
Total exports during the January-September 1998 period were
$37.24 billion, a 5.73 percent decline from the same period in
1997 due to a 31.44 percent drop in the value of oil and gas
exports. Non-oil and gas exports, however, rose slightly by 1.51
percent, Kusmadi said.
"The drop in the oil and gas exports is beyond our control,"
said BPS senior official Rusman Heriawan, citing the slump in the
oil price from $18 per barrel to $12 per barrel due to
oversupply.
"The oil export volume dropped only 5.79 percent, but the
value plunged by 31.4 percent," he added.
BPS reported that imports during January-September 1998 were
$20.15 billion, a 36.60 percent decline from the level in the
same period last year.
Kusmadi said the decline resulted from a 29.31 percent fall in
oil and gas imports and a 37.35 percent drop in non-oil and gas
imports. (rei)