Indonesia's Trade Balance Plummets in April 2026, Rupiah Continues to Decline
The rupiah exchange rate in the spot market on Friday, 5 June 2026, was traded at Rp 18,051 per US dollar, a decline of 2 points or 0.01 per cent from its previous position of Rp 18,049 per US dollar.
Muhammad Amru Syifa, from the Research and Development department of the Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX), stated that the rupiah’s weakness was triggered by Indonesia’s trade balance data, which failed to meet market expectations.
“The sentiment influencing the movement of the rupiah stems from domestic factors, particularly after the Indonesian trade balance data released on 2 June 2026 showed that April 2026 trade only reached US$0.09 billion,” said Amru on Friday, 5 June 2026. “That figure is much lower than the previous month’s US$3.32 billion and fell below market expectations.”
This condition is seen as reflecting a reduction in foreign exchange supply from overseas trade activities, thereby exerting pressure on the rupiah. Regarding external factors, Amru noted that the rupiah’s movement is still influenced by the strength of the US dollar amidst high global uncertainty and the continued attractiveness of dollar-based assets.
Furthermore, investor concerns regarding the independence of Bank Indonesia, following the ratification of regulations that expand the central bank’s role, are considered to be increasing market participants’ caution towards Indonesian assets.
To maintain exchange rate stability, it is suggested that Bank Indonesia must continue stabilisation measures through measured interventions in the foreign exchange market, the Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) market, and the bond market, while ensuring adequate foreign currency liquidity.
“Meanwhile, the government needs to strengthen investor confidence through consistent economic policies, maintaining fiscal credibility, and encouraging the optimisation of export proceeds to ensure that the domestic supply of foreign exchange remains stable,” added Amru.
Based on these factors, the rupiah exchange rate in today’s trading is expected to move fluctuated with a tendency to remain under pressure within the range of Rp 18,000 - Rp 18,110 per US dollar.