Indonesia's SBN Yield Rises to 7.14% Amid Global Uncertainty

The yield on Indonesia’s 10-year government bonds (SBN) increased by 31 basis points quarter-to-quarter to 7.14 percent at the end of the second quarter of 2026, according to Purbaya, an official speaking at a press conference in Jakarta. The rise was attributed to escalating global conflicts, which drove up world oil prices and heightened concerns about future inflationary pressures, triggering a risk-off sentiment among investors in the SBN market. Purbaya noted that the increase in 10-year bond yields as of 30 July 2026 was also experienced by other developing countries since the start of the year, including Turkey (up 524 bps), the Philippines (up 148 bps), Brazil (up 106 bps), South Korea (up 92 bps), Poland (up 59 bps), and South Africa (up 55 bps). Despite this, non-resident investors recorded a net buy of Rp32.09 trillion in the SBN market during the second quarter of 2026, bringing the year-to-date net buy to Rp6.99 trillion. As of 30 July 2026, non-resident investors recorded a net buy of Rp6.36 trillion month-to-date, or Rp13.35 trillion year-to-date, with the 10-year SBN yield rising 15 bps month-to-date, or 122 bps year-to-date, to 7.29 percent. These developments occurred amid continued global financial market uncertainty due to the conflict between the United States and Iran following a ceasefire and rising crude oil prices. On the fiscal side, Purbaya stated that budget financing supports credible and accountable state budget (APBN) management. Budget financing realisation reached Rp452.0 trillion up to the second quarter of 2026, growing 59.4 percent year-on-year. This was supported by prudent and measured debt management, while considering government liquidity, optimal cash conditions, and financial market dynamics. Meanwhile, state revenue realisation reached Rp1,459.4 trillion by the end of the second quarter of 2026, growing strongly by 21.4 percent year-on-year. State expenditure realisation reached Rp1,656.0 trillion, growing 17.8 percent year-on-year, with central government spending realisation reaching Rp1,298.6 trillion, growing 29.4 percent year-on-year.