Indonesia's S&P DJI Stock Exposure Reaches IDR 4 Trillion, IDX Calculates Potential Outflow

Jakarta - The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) estimates the exposure of Indonesian shares and instruments held in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded products (ETPs) linked to S&P/Dow Jones Indices at approximately US$200 million, or around IDR 3.5-4 trillion. However, this figure does not directly represent the potential scale of foreign capital outflows.

In its Country Classification - 2026/2027 Watchlist announcement released on 7 July 2026, S&P DJI placed Indonesia on the 2027 Watchlist. This means the country is now under review for a possible classification change during the annual review in 2027. Indonesia, currently classified as an Emerging Market, could potentially be reclassified to Special Measures or Frontier status.

IDX Director of Trading and Member Regulation, Irvan Susandy, stated that the bourse is still calculating the precise amount of funds that could be affected by the decision. “I have heard from several parties that it is around US$200 million, or roughly IDR 3.5 to IDR 4 trillion. We are currently seeking more detailed figures and calculating what exactly might be impacted and how much could flow out,” Irvan told reporters at the IDX Building in Jakarta on Wednesday (8/7/2026).

Regarding the potential for outflows, Irvan noted that there is still room for Indonesia to make improvements to minimise the impact. The inclusion on the watchlist does not mean an immediate classification change. He explained that S&P DJI provides an evaluation period of about one year before making a final decision at the next review. “We hope that in the near future we can make improvements and they will issue a positive statement on the matter, because the announcement does not mean they will downgrade us to Frontier next week or next month,” Irvan said. He also stressed that Indonesia’s status remains Emerging Market. Besides the option of reclassification to Frontier Market, S&P DJI also has a Special Measures category, meaning the evaluation process is still open and has not reached a final decision.

Separately, based on an investigation of public ETF/ETP products using S&P DJI indices, the estimated material exposure to Indonesia is in the range of IDR 8.3 trillion to IDR 8.5 trillion, assuming an exchange rate of IDR 18,000 per US dollar. This figure is not the total assets under management of the indices, but rather the estimated value of Indonesian shares and instruments held within the relevant S&P/Dow Jones-linked ETFs and ETPs. Calculating only the 12 main products, the total exposure is approximately IDR 8.29 trillion. Including borderline products such as GMF and ASDV/ZPRA, each around IDR 83 billion, the total rises to approximately IDR 8.46 trillion. This list is estimated to cover around 95% of the public ETF/ETP products under S&P/Dow Jones with material exposure to Indonesia.