Indonesia's race for presidency: What the opinion polls don't say

Indonesia's race for presidency: What the opinion polls don't say

Leonard C. Sebastian
The Straits Times
Asia News Network
Singapore

Indonesians want change, it is often said. This was evident
from the spectacular decline in the popularity of the ruling
Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) in the recent
general election. It is not surprising then that all five teams
in the presidential race next Monday pledge change.

But do they really represent change? The candidates include
the incumbent president and vice-president, a former minister in
their Cabinet who held the key security portfolio, the speaker of
the Indonesian parliament, the MPR, and former president
Soeharto's last armed forces commander, who was also a member of
former president Abdurrahman Wahid's Cabinet.

Voters, not surprisingly, wonder: After years of being part of
the problem, how could these figures become part of the solution?

To mask their own deficiencies and to appeal to voters who are
yet unsophisticated, candidates peddle a heady concoction of
identity politics, unsubstantiated promises and a steady stream
of dangdut performances. Rumors of money politics persist; money
is a sweetener to voters concerned about more short-term personal
gains.

With the campaign nearing its climax, what is dominating the
public's perception seems to be the multitude of polls carried
out by various institutions.

Based on interviews conducted in the week of June 4-9, the
latest International Foundation for Election Systems poll puts
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at 45 percent, close to four times the
level of support for his nearest rival, Wiranto (11.4 percent).

The incumbent, Megawati Soekarnoputri, gets 11 percent; Amien
Rais 9.8 percent; and Hamzah Haz 2 percent.

While Susilo is undeniably popular, two other factors must be
considered. One is the formidable election machinery of Wiranto,
which is significant though understated; the other is the
advantage of incumbency enjoyed by Megawati, plus the loyalty of
her supporters, who constitute what amounts to a captive
electorate.

On this triumvirate of factors, and on whichever becomes the
predominant quality, rests the final outcome of the presidential
election. Popularity, political machinery and loyalty: Which will
triumph?

It remains to be seen how enduring and widespread Susilo's
popularity will prove. First, he does not have a large captive
electorate, unlike contenders representing Golkar or the PDI-P.
The party he represents -- the Partai Demokrat -- won just 7.45
percent of the vote in the general election.

Second, the sympathy for the underdog he enjoyed in April, due
to the perceived injustice of his marginalisation in the Megawati
Cabinet and subsequent resignation, is less evident now. Each and
every candidate has engaged in and been tarred by smear
campaigns.

Third, the recent rise in Amien's popularity is a critical
factor as he is likely to take a good proportion of the urban
vote, including a big percentage of the 23 million new voters.
Both of these constituencies are an important part of Susilo's
electorate.

Fourth, the rural areas: Money politics and the advantage of
incumbency are key here. With access to the mass media limited,
influence over the rank and file of the government apparatus and
the presence of a well-oiled election machinery may tilt the
balance in favor of Megawati or Wiranto.

Money politics will be rife, not only in the campaigning but
also critically during the counting of votes.

Indonesia has never had a presidential election; there is no
precedent for analysts to gauge voting patterns. Hence, it would
be dangerous to over-emphasize the significance of polls and
voter surveys.

The more important question concerns the demands for change:
Are they so strong that the results from the general election can
be taken to mirror the mood of the electorate? If yes, and if
Susilo is deemed by the electorate to manifest such aspirations
for change, then he stands the best chance of becoming
Indonesia's next president.

However, it would be wise not to discount indicators like
political machinery and loyalty, which add significant weight to
Megawati's and Wiranto's credentials.

Indonesia's new parliament is a highly fragmented one without
a majority party. The choice of president -- Indonesia's first
directly-elected one -- is thus critical if he or she is to have
a strong mandate for policy reform and economic recovery.

The writer is senior fellow and coordinator of the Indonesia
program at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies. These
are his personal views.