Indonesia's race for presidency: What the opinion polls don't say

Leonard C. Sebastian The Straits Times Asia News Network Singapore

Indonesians want change, it is often said. This was evident from the spectacular decline in the popularity of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) in the recent general election. It is not surprising then that all five teams in the presidential race next Monday pledge change.

But do they really represent change? The candidates include the incumbent president and vice-president, a former minister in their Cabinet who held the key security portfolio, the speaker of the Indonesian parliament, the MPR, and former president Soeharto's last armed forces commander, who was also a member of former president Abdurrahman Wahid's Cabinet.

Voters, not surprisingly, wonder: After years of being part of the problem, how could these figures become part of the solution?

To mask their own deficiencies and to appeal to voters who are yet unsophisticated, candidates peddle a heady concoction of identity politics, unsubstantiated promises and a steady stream of dangdut performances. Rumors of money politics persist; money is a sweetener to voters concerned about more short-term personal gains.

With the campaign nearing its climax, what is dominating the public's perception seems to be the multitude of polls carried out by various institutions.

Based on interviews conducted in the week of June 4-9, the latest International Foundation for Election Systems poll puts Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at 45 percent, close to four times the level of support for his nearest rival, Wiranto (11.4 percent).

The incumbent, Megawati Soekarnoputri, gets 11 percent; Amien Rais 9.8 percent; and Hamzah Haz 2 percent.

While Susilo is undeniably popular, two other factors must be considered. One is the formidable election machinery of Wiranto, which is significant though understated; the other is the advantage of incumbency enjoyed by Megawati, plus the loyalty of her supporters, who constitute what amounts to a captive electorate.

On this triumvirate of factors, and on whichever becomes the predominant quality, rests the final outcome of the presidential election. Popularity, political machinery and loyalty: Which will triumph?

It remains to be seen how enduring and widespread Susilo's popularity will prove. First, he does not have a large captive electorate, unlike contenders representing Golkar or the PDI-P. The party he represents -- the Partai Demokrat -- won just 7.45 percent of the vote in the general election.

Second, the sympathy for the underdog he enjoyed in April, due to the perceived injustice of his marginalisation in the Megawati Cabinet and subsequent resignation, is less evident now. Each and every candidate has engaged in and been tarred by smear campaigns.

Third, the recent rise in Amien's popularity is a critical factor as he is likely to take a good proportion of the urban vote, including a big percentage of the 23 million new voters. Both of these constituencies are an important part of Susilo's electorate.

Fourth, the rural areas: Money politics and the advantage of incumbency are key here. With access to the mass media limited, influence over the rank and file of the government apparatus and the presence of a well-oiled election machinery may tilt the balance in favor of Megawati or Wiranto.

Money politics will be rife, not only in the campaigning but also critically during the counting of votes.

Indonesia has never had a presidential election; there is no precedent for analysts to gauge voting patterns. Hence, it would be dangerous to over-emphasize the significance of polls and voter surveys.

The more important question concerns the demands for change: Are they so strong that the results from the general election can be taken to mirror the mood of the electorate? If yes, and if Susilo is deemed by the electorate to manifest such aspirations for change, then he stands the best chance of becoming Indonesia's next president.

However, it would be wise not to discount indicators like political machinery and loyalty, which add significant weight to Megawati's and Wiranto's credentials.

Indonesia's new parliament is a highly fragmented one without a majority party. The choice of president -- Indonesia's first directly-elected one -- is thus critical if he or she is to have a strong mandate for policy reform and economic recovery.

The writer is senior fellow and coordinator of the Indonesia program at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies. These are his personal views.