Indonesia's Petrochemical Sector Shows Two Faces: Who Laughs and Who Cries Amid War?

The performance of petrochemical issuers and their derivatives in the first half of 2026 presents a nuanced picture. While the combined net profit of the 18 listed companies fell sharply, a deeper analysis reveals that the sector’s trend is not as negative as the aggregate figures suggest. All 18 companies recorded year-on-year revenue growth, with total combined revenue reaching Rp225.00 trillion, an increase of 70.02%. This indicates that the petrochemical industry chain is still moving positively in terms of demand, selling prices, and business consolidation. However, combined net profit dropped 66.69% year-on-year to Rp11.45 trillion. This decline was primarily concentrated in three major entities: BRPT (Barito Pacific Tbk), TPIA (Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk), and CDIA (Chandra Daya Investasi Tbk). The broader sector story is more positive, as the majority of downstream players showed improvement. Of the 18 issuers, 9 recorded profit growth, 6 successfully turned from a loss to a profit, and only 3 saw their profits decline. No company flipped from profit to loss. The macro context adds another layer of interest. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US have the potential to sustain oil price volatility, particularly due to risks to global energy supply and distribution routes. For the petrochemical industry, oil is not just an energy commodity but also a source of raw materials. Products like naphtha, LPG, aromatics, olefins, and basic plastic materials are closely linked to oil and gas prices. This means that when oil prices fluctuate wildly, petrochemical issuers can be impacted from two directions: raw material costs may rise and squeeze margins, but selling prices for chemical and plastic products could also be pushed up if demand remains strong. The H1 2026 data shows that revenue rose across the board, while profit pressure was concentrated in only a few large names. The first category, companies with rising profits, includes downstream chemical, industrial gas, plastic, packaging, and polymer-based material players. UNIC and ESSA were the largest in this group, with UNIC posting a profit of Rp559.73 billion, up 160.71% year-on-year, and ESSA recording a profit of Rp543.13 billion, up 103.27%. PBID, a plastic packaging company, saw profits rise 112.12% to Rp410.46 billion, while IMPC, which operates in plastic-based building materials, recorded a profit of Rp446.50 billion, up 51.03%. Smaller players like AGII, PDPP, EKAD, IGAR, and ESIP also moved positively, reinforcing the view that recovery is spreading through the downstream chain. The second category, companies with declining profits, consists of only three issuers but carries significant weight. TPIA, a key name in Indonesia’s petrochemical landscape, saw revenue jump 83.59% to Rp96.28 trillion, but net profit fell 77.53% to Rp5.10 trillion. BRPT, a holding company with significant exposure to the Chandra Asri ecosystem, reported a 64.71% drop in net profit to Rp3.43 trillion despite a 76.11% revenue increase. CDIA’s profit also declined by 74.52% to Rp311.17 billion. The third and most interesting category is the turnaround group, where six companies that were loss-making in H1 2025 returned to profitability in H1 2026. FPNI, a polyethylene producer closer to the core petrochemical chain, swung from a loss of Rp68.80 billion to a profit of Rp152.73 billion. TRST, AKPI, and ADMG, which operate in film, plastic, and polyester products, also showed strong recoveries, indicating easing pressure on raw material costs, selling prices, or production utilisation. POLY and APLI also exited loss-making positions, albeit with smaller nominal profits. The fourth category, companies that went from profit to loss, was empty, with no issuers in the petrochemical and derivatives list experiencing such a reversal.