Indonesia's Non-Subsidised Fuel Prices Potentially Set to Fall or Hold in July 2026

The price of non-subsidised fuel in Indonesia may see a reduction or be held steady on 1 July 2026, as global crude oil prices have fallen sharply. This projection comes amid easing geopolitical tensions and a relatively stable rupiah exchange rate, two key variables in the government’s fuel pricing formula.

Based on Refinitiv data, the average price of Brent crude oil in June 2026 was US$84.4 per barrel, a sharp 18.62% decline from the previous month. The drop was largely driven by a peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which officially ended the war and alleviated market fears over supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also fell by 17.11% to US$81.58 per barrel in June.

The government’s pricing mechanism, outlined in Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Decree No. 19 K/10/MEM/2019, uses the average Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) price from the two preceding months. The two-month average for Brent crude fell 8.98% to US$93.83 per barrel, while WTI dropped 8.58% to US$89.81 per barrel. This decline provides room for a potential reduction in non-subsidised fuel prices.

However, the rupiah’s exchange rate remains under pressure, depreciating slightly by 0.17% to Rp17,893 per US dollar during June. This limited weakening may prompt the government to hold prices steady, particularly for RON 92 (Pertamax), which was previously kept at Rp12,300 per litre despite rising global prices before being adjusted to Rp16,250 on 10 June 2026. The current market price for RON 92 is estimated to be around Rp19,000 to Rp20,000 per litre. In early June, Pertamina also adjusted other non-subsidised fuels, raising Pertamax Turbo but lowering diesel variants like Dexlite and Pertamina Dex.