Indonesia's MSCI Weight Rises Again, GOTO and CPIN Shares in Investor Spotlight
Indonesia’s position in the MSCI Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) index is showing signs of recovery after slumping to its lowest level in a decade. However, the market is still awaiting several important catalysts, including the results of the MSCI index review in August and a decision regarding the freeze on adding index constituents.
Mirae Asset Sekuritas analyst Wilbert Arifin noted in his research dated 24 July 2026 that Indonesia’s weight in the MSCI EM has now stabilised at around 0.5%, after touching a low of 0.4% in June 2026. By comparison, in December 2025, Indonesia’s weight was still at 1.2%.
According to Wilbert, the stabilisation was driven by the improving performance of the Indonesian stock market. Throughout July 2026 to date, the MSCI Indonesia index strengthened by 12.5%, in contrast to the MSCI Emerging Markets index, which corrected by around 4%.
The improvement is also reflected in foreign fund flows. Foreign outflows during July shrank to approximately Rp 4.1 trillion, much lower than the average monthly outflow of Rp 12.3 trillion in the first half of 2026.
Nevertheless, Wilbert assesses that the recovery in Indonesia’s weight is still in its early stages. A more significant increase can only occur if MSCI lifts the freeze policy on the addition or upgrade of index constituents.
Meanwhile, market attention is now focused on the results of MSCI’s quarterly review, which will be announced on 13 August 2026 and take effect at the close of trading on 31 August 2026.
In this review, Mirae Asset expects no new stocks to enter the index or migrate upwards because the freeze policy remains in place. Conversely, PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN) is expected to experience a downgrade after its free-float-adjusted market capitalisation fell below the threshold due to a roughly 22.5% decline in its share price since the last review in May.
Meanwhile, the fate of PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO) remains the biggest question mark.
Wilbert explained that, based on general criteria, GOTO still meets MSCI’s liquidity requirements, with a three-month Annualised Traded Value Ratio (ATVR) of 41.3% and a 12-month ATVR of 72.8%, well above the respective 5% and 10% thresholds.
“We assess that GOTO’s chances of remaining in the index are slightly better than 50:50, but not yet strong enough to ensure the stock is safe from deletion,” said Wilbert.
Mirae Asset estimates that CPIN’s downgrade will trigger passive fund outflows of around Rp 500 billion, equivalent to approximately 150 million shares. If GOTO is also deleted from the index, additional passive outflows are estimated at around Rp 1 trillion, or approximately 20 billion shares.
Despite this, Wilbert assesses that the overall impact on the market is relatively limited. The decline in Indonesia’s weight in the MSCI EM is estimated at only around 0.01 percentage points if only CPIN is affected, or around 0.03 percentage points if GOTO is also removed.
“This value is relatively small compared to the increase in Indonesia’s market capitalisation during July, so the potential pressure from passive fund outflows is expected to be absorbed by the market,” he wrote.
Going forward, Mirae Asset maintains a positive outlook on the Indonesian stock market for the second half of 2026. Wilbert assesses that market conditions are starting to improve, with Indonesia’s weight having stabilised at a low level, the index composition becoming cleaner, and the leadership of emerging markets beginning to shift away from AI-themed stocks.
Therefore, Mirae Asset recommends that investors use any potential market weakness due to the MSCI index adjustment, effective 31 August, as an accumulation opportunity. However, a stronger recovery certainty still depends on MSCI’s decision regarding the lifting of the freeze policy, which is expected to become clearer only at the November review.