Indonesia's GDP seen up at 3.41% in 2002

Indonesia's GDP seen up at 3.41% in 2002

Reuters, Jakarta

Indonesia is seen posting growth of 3.4 percent in 2002 and 4.0 percent in 2003 due to the increasingly stable political backdrop and an improved global outlook, according to a Reuters poll of 10 research houses.

"We are optimistic 2002 and 2003 GDP growth will be higher (than 2001) as improved political stability should boost investment and domestic consumption," said Fauzi Ichsan, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Jakarta.

This year's budget has forecast growth of four percent compared with actual 3.32 percent growth in 2001.

But earlier this month, Indonesia's statistics bureau forecast economic growth at 3.8 percent this year and said various unanticipated internal and external shocks could trim the number to 3.2 percent.

The bureau predicted growth next year would be 4.5 percent, or 3.5 percent in the worst-case scenario, figures that quickly won praise from analysts as more realistic than recent forecasts.

These numbers contrast with draft 2003 budget figures which forecast GDP growth for next year at 6-7 percent, a prediction already criticized by many economists as way too optimistic.