Indonesia's Economic Resilience and the Homework That Needs to Be Completed

In an era where the global economy is overshadowed by uncertainty, pessimism can easily take root. Daily, the public is bombarded with news of high interest rates in advanced economies, unrelenting geopolitical conflicts, energy price pressures, and a slowing world economy.

This naturally leads many to question whether Indonesia is strong enough to weather the situation. Such questions are not only reasonable but also healthy. In an unpredictable global economic environment, the public should indeed remain vigilant.

However, vigilance must be distinguished from hasty conclusions. Not every pressure signifies failure, not every complaint about living costs means the national economic foundation is collapsing, and not every critique of the economic situation should be met with denial.

If data is read comprehensively and with a cool head, Indonesia’s position remains quite strong, with the national economy holding up relatively well amid the global storm, although the government still has significant homework to do.

On one hand, there is a tendency to judge the economy solely from daily experiences, especially when the prices of necessities feel burdensome. On the other hand, there is the opposite tendency, where simply pointing to growth figures, inflation, and foreign reserves leads to the assumption that everything is fine.

The economy should be understood from both macro and micro perspectives simultaneously. When these two perspectives are combined, the picture that emerges is not simple, but it is more honest.

From the macro side, there are strong reasons to say that the government has succeeded in maintaining basic economic stability. The Central Statistics Agency records Indonesia’s economic growth throughout 2025 at 5.11% year-on-year.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the economy grew 5.39% year-on-year. In a sluggish global environment, this figure is clearly no small achievement. It shows that domestic consumption is still running, business activity has not lost momentum drastically, and the national growth engine has not been dragged into deeper slowdown.

On the price side, the government and monetary authorities also deserve recognition. Annual inflation in December 2025 was recorded at 2.61%, still within the national target range. In a period of global turbulence, the ability to keep inflation low is one of the most important tests.

Many countries face situations where prices rise faster than the state’s ability to manage them. Indonesia, at least to this point, has still managed to maintain significant stability. Such price stability is important not only for policy credibility but also for business certainty and household peace of mind.

Indonesia’s external position also shows no bad resilience. Foreign reserves reaching USD152.1 billion at the start of 2026 provide an important buffer for rupiah stability, import financing, and the country’s ability to face external pressures.

In a fast-moving world that sometimes strikes without warning, foreign reserves are more than just technical figures. They are one symbol of the ability to endure. When global markets panic easily, a country with sufficient external buffers is certainly in a safer position than one that is fragile from the start.

Consumer confidence has not collapsed either. The Consumer Confidence Index remains in the optimistic zone, from 125.2 in February 2026 to 122.9 in March 2026. There has been a decline, but it does not indicate an extreme reversal of sentiment.

What we see now is moderation. Society still has confidence in the economic situation, though it is starting to be more cautious. That is reasonable. In an unstable global atmosphere, caution is a form of rationality, not panic. Therefore, this decline in the index is better understood as a signal of vigilance, not evidence that the domestic economic foundation is shaky.

Assessments from international institutions have not shifted in a worrying direction either. The IMF still projects Indonesia’s economic growth for 2026 at around 5.1%, while the World Bank estimates about 5.2%.

This is not mere symbolic praise. Such projections indicate that from an external perspective, Indonesia is still viewed as an economy with good resilience amid global uncertainty. If outsiders without domestic political interests still read Indonesia relatively positively, then there is certainly an objective basis supporting that assessment.

Various macroeconomic indicators already show that Indonesia’s economy is relatively stable, and the government deserves credit. But we also need to be honest and acknowledge that pressures at the household level remain real and not fully addressed. This is evident from the fact that living costs are still a concern for many people, especially in the food and housing sectors.

In everyday experiences, society judges the economy not from foreign reserves or inflation targets, but from what they pay at the market, the instalments they bear, housing costs, and the ability to maintain family consumption without cutting basic needs.

Therefore, when part of the public says the economy feels heavy, that voice cannot simply be refuted with official statistics. It must be understood as part of the economic reality itself.

From a consumer protection perspective, this is the most important point. Macro stability provides the foundation, but the foundation alone is not enough. The foundation must be translated into more concrete economic security at the household level.

If growth is recorded high but society still feels squeezed, then there is a question that must be addressed.