Indonesia's Daily Oil Production Falls Below 600,000 Barrels: Why?

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) reported that average oil production during January–July 2026 was recorded at 578,156 barrels per day (bpd). This production achievement is still lower, or only about 95%, of the production target set in the 2026 State Budget (APBN) of 610,000 bpd.

Director General of Oil and Gas at the Ministry of ESDM Laode Sulaeman explained that several factors have caused oil production to remain low through the middle of this year. First, leaks and fires on PT Transportasi Gas Indonesia (TGI) pipelines at Area KP 222 on 2 January 2026 and KP 294 on 9 January disrupted gas supply for oil production in the Rokan Working Area (WK) or Block in Riau, operated by PT Pertamina Hulu Rokan (PHR). According to him, work to handle the gas pipeline leaks has been completed.

Second, also in the Rokan WK, there were disruptions due to electrical system constraints, specifically at the MCTN power plant. He acknowledged that the electrical system in the Rokan WK has not yet fully recovered, with one unit (Unit 3) still being worked on to be fully operational again. “The second issue is also still in Rokan, related to electrical system constraints which we are still working to repair and bring back into operation so that production in the Rokan Block can be optimal again,” Laode explained during a Hearing Meeting (RDP) with Commission XII of the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR RI) on Wednesday (26/8/2026).

Third, there were operational constraints in the Cepu WK and an acceleration in the natural decline rate. “Indeed, the Cepu Block in 2026 has a somewhat extreme natural decline condition. We have held a series of discussions with the field operator, the WK operator, and steps have been taken to reduce this natural decline, so that the current condition in the field is to keep it flat. So don’t let it decline further, that is what we are doing with the Cepu field,” he explained.

As for natural gas production up to July 2026, it was recorded at an average of 6,544 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD). This figure is also still lower than the target set in the 2026 APBN of 6,837 MMSCFD.

It should be noted that realised oil production in 2025 was recorded at 606.1 thousand bpd and gas production at 6,753 MMSCFD. Compared with the 2025 realisation, this means that oil and gas production in 2026 has experienced a decline.

Based on SKK Migas records, oil production from the Rokan Block operated by PHR up to July 2026 was recorded at 133,581 bpd, or only 81.5% of the APBN target of 163,859 bpd. Likewise, oil production from the Cepu Block operated by ExxonMobil Cepu Ltd up to July 2026 was recorded at 124,266 bpd, or only 83.7% of the APBN target of 148,500 bpd.