Indonesian Stocks Swing as Oil Tops $100, Inflation Accelerates
Indonesian Stocks Swing as Oil Tops $100, Inflation Accelerates
Jakarta. Indonesian stocks rose as much as 0.55% on Friday before giving up their gains, with Jakarta Composite Index fluctuating between 5,984 and 6,044 as investors weighed rising domestic inflation, trade data and renewed global inflation risks.
A total of 29.29 billion shares had changed hands in early trading, with transactions valued at Rp 1.1 trillion ($61.39 million) across 65,127 transactions. A total of 260 stocks advanced, 149 declined and 239 remained unchanged.
Phintraco Sekuritas said Indonesia’s annual inflation accelerated to 3.28% in September 2026 from 3.19% in August. Monthly inflation stood at 0.30%, while core inflation reached 2.84% year-on-year.
The increase was primarily driven by the food, beverages and tobacco group, which recorded annual inflation of 4.37%. Despite the acceleration in headline inflation, relatively contained core inflation suggests domestic demand pressures remain limited, meaning the latest figures are unlikely to put significant pressure on Bank Indonesia to tighten monetary policy.
“However, rising food prices need to be monitored because they could increase the risk of further inflationary pressures. Inflation could also erode consumer purchasing power,” Phintraco Sekuritas said.
Indonesia also recorded a trade surplus of $3.55 billion in August, up sharply from $120 million in July, according to Phintraco Sekuritas. Exports reached $26.61 billion, up 6.72% year-on-year, while imports totaled $23.06 billion, growing 19.09%.
The surplus was primarily supported by non-oil and gas commodities, particularly metal products and downstream-processed goods, while the oil and gas sector remained in deficit.
“The much faster growth in imports compared with exports needs to be watched because it could narrow the trade surplus in the future, particularly if global demand and commodity prices weaken,” the brokerage said.
External developments also kept investors cautious as markets entered the fourth quarter, Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia said, with resilient US economic growth accompanied by renewed price pressures.
US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation for August came in below expectations, while second-quarter real gross domestic product growth was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%. Private-sector job growth also picked up again in September.
However, the ISM manufacturing prices index climbed to 77.9 in September from 71.1 in August, signaling renewed increases in raw material costs.
“This left investors waiting for nonfarm payrolls data for further confirmation of the direction of monetary policy,” Kiwoom Sekuritas said.
Pluang Research added that more cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson eased pressure on bond yields, which had weighed on gold prices throughout September.
Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf, including plans to deploy an additional US aircraft carrier, pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel. Higher oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures and prompt the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance on monetary policy.
On Wall Street, US stocks closed mostly higher on Wednesday. The S&P 500 gained 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average both ended slightly above their previous closing levels.
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