Indonesian rupiah weaker this morning, forecast to fluctuate throughout the day

The Indonesian rupiah is projected to continue moving in a fluctuating manner but closed weaker in today’s trading. According to Bank Indonesia’s Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor), the rupiah stood at Rp 17,685 per US dollar on Wednesday, 20 May 2026, 34 points stronger than the 17,719 level on Tuesday, 19 May 2026. In the spot market on Thursday, 21 May 2026, as of 09:17 WIB, the rupiah was traded at Rp 17,655 per US dollar, weakening 1 point or 0.01 percent from the previous level of Rp 17,654 per US dollar. Economist Ibrahim Assuaibi said the market reacted positively to President Prabowo Subianto’s speech in the DPR, which targets growth of 5.8-6.5% in 2027. Prabowo noted that the average economic growth over the past seven years stands at 5%, though he acknowledged that even as the economy advances, the middle class has contracted and poverty has risen. In addition to growth, the government targets inflation at between 1.5% and 3.5%. From the exchange-rate perspective, the rupiah is targeted to sit in a range of Rp 16,800 to Rp 17,500 per US dollar, and the 10-year government bond yield is expected to be between 6.5% and 7.3%. In the energy sector, Indonesia’s crude oil price assumptions are US$70–US$90 per barrel. Crude oil lifting is projected at 602 thousand to 615 thousand barrels per day and gas lifting at 934 thousand to 977 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. Regarding the state budget (APBN), next year the government targets revenue at 11.82 to 12.40 percent of GDP, expenditure at 13.62 to 14.80 percent of GDP, and a deficit kept within 1.8 to 2.4 percent of GDP. “We will continue to strive to curb and narrow the deficit,” said Prabowo. Bank Indonesia then decided to raise the policy rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%. The Deposit Facility rate stands at 4.25% and the Lending Facility at 6.25%. The decision ends BI’s eight-month streak of holding rates. BI said the move was undertaken to reinforce rupiah stability amid deteriorating global conditions stemming from the Middle East conflict and to safeguard inflation targets for 2026-2027 within the range of 2.5±1%, 8%, and 6.5%.