Indonesian politics in 1996: What's in store?
Indonesian politics in 1996: What's in store?
Political life has been quiet colorful this year, especially
recently. Will it be the same next year or could it be even
livelier? Political scientist J. Soedjati Djiwandono looks into
his political crystal ball for answers.
JAKARTA (JP): To some extent, forecasting in politics should
not but be speculative in nature. This is true especially as
regards countries like Indonesia, with so little transparency in
their political processes. If anyone claims to know for sure what
is really going on at any given moment and what is going to
happen in Indonesian politics, at best he is very likely to be
misinformed.
This year we have witnessed the emergence of new mass
organizations, some conspicuously using the abbreviations or
acronyms used by now defunct political parties. One even openly
aspires to develop into a political party some day.
There are reasons to believe, however, that they are likely to
lose steam rapidly in the new year. Some of them appear to be
like reunions of outgoing generations of politicians nostalgic
for their good old days. There has been no indication that they
are about to embark on any politically meaningful activities.
Indeed, these developments seem to be no more than a
reflection of a crisis of confidence in the existing state and
democratic institutions, and thus of government authority. This
has also been reflected in the challenge posed by the United
Development Party (PPP), some of whose branches have threatened
to boycott the coming general election unless fairness is
ensured.
A number of reasons indicate the crisis may well continue into
the new year. The inconsistency of government policy is apparent
in allowing one cabinet minister to retain the general
chairmanship of a mass organization (the information minister
remains the chairman of Golkar), while reportedly prohibiting
other ministers from doing so.
Injustice is clearly seen in the blatantly discriminatory
treatment of different political organizations, despite denials
by the home affairs minister. Golkar, the dominant political
grouping, seems to enjoy unlimited freedom and resources for
political campaigning, which is justified as "meeting the cadre",
while the activities of the political parties, the Indonesian
Democratic Party (PDI) in particular, continue to be restricted.
Much worse was the case of the reports on corruption involving
the Minister of Transportation Haryanto Dhanutirto. It has been
announced that the case of the transportation minister is
considered "closed" by the President.
It is hard to explain why this case has not been examined by
an independent body of inquiry. This would not prejudice the
principle of the presumption of innocence. Any decision on what
constitutes a criminal case should be made by a court of law.
That is only fair in a democratic state based on the rule of law.
It would also ensure a clean government.
To affirm simply that the minister concerned has "repaid" what
he owed for his family's expenses, the legality of which seems to
have been in question, appears to run counter to the rule of law.
And to emphasize the "leaking" rather than the contents of the
reports is to brush aside the real issue. This may have the
effect of distracting attention from the main issue at hand.
Besides, the possibility should not be ruled out that similar
cases may involve other ministers or high-ranking officials.
We seem to be going through a crisis not only of confidence,
but also of values, which seem to have been turned upside down.
We are no longer sure of what is right and what is wrong, what is
good and what is bad. The only criterion seems to be "power",
whether one is in the center of political power, close to it, or
far away from it. With the case of the transportation minister
now declared closed, the hope for a clean and authoritative
government seems far from coming to fruition.
The political temperature in the country is running high,
according to the home affairs minister. Will it run higher or
cool down in the new year? In all events, this may have much to
do with the coming general election, which is after all well over
one year away.
The government may try to win greater public confidence,
thereby reassuring the people and cooling down the political
temperature, and perhaps improving its chance of a genuine
electoral victory -- rather than, as has been alleged in the
past, one achieved through rigging or manipulation. This will be
possible if it takes positive and constructive steps to
accommodate the current public aspirations for justice, openness
and transparency, and for reform and further democratization.
This can be done if better coordination is seriously attempted
among cabinet ministers and military leaders to ensure
consistency and firm leadership.
Otherwise, in the absence of a credible alternative contender
for national leadership -- not likely in the offing and probably
unlikely in the light of prevailing Indonesian cultural values --
we may be in for a continuously declining political situation
with a deepening crisis of confidence and of values.
The writer is a member of the Board of Directors at the Centre
for Strategic and International Studies.