Indonesian politics in 1996: What's in store?

Indonesian politics in 1996: What's in store?

Political life has been quiet colorful this year, especially recently. Will it be the same next year or could it be even livelier? Political scientist J. Soedjati Djiwandono looks into his political crystal ball for answers.

JAKARTA (JP): To some extent, forecasting in politics should not but be speculative in nature. This is true especially as regards countries like Indonesia, with so little transparency in their political processes. If anyone claims to know for sure what is really going on at any given moment and what is going to happen in Indonesian politics, at best he is very likely to be misinformed.

This year we have witnessed the emergence of new mass organizations, some conspicuously using the abbreviations or acronyms used by now defunct political parties. One even openly aspires to develop into a political party some day.

There are reasons to believe, however, that they are likely to lose steam rapidly in the new year. Some of them appear to be like reunions of outgoing generations of politicians nostalgic for their good old days. There has been no indication that they are about to embark on any politically meaningful activities.

Indeed, these developments seem to be no more than a reflection of a crisis of confidence in the existing state and democratic institutions, and thus of government authority. This has also been reflected in the challenge posed by the United Development Party (PPP), some of whose branches have threatened to boycott the coming general election unless fairness is ensured.

A number of reasons indicate the crisis may well continue into the new year. The inconsistency of government policy is apparent in allowing one cabinet minister to retain the general chairmanship of a mass organization (the information minister remains the chairman of Golkar), while reportedly prohibiting other ministers from doing so.

Injustice is clearly seen in the blatantly discriminatory treatment of different political organizations, despite denials by the home affairs minister. Golkar, the dominant political grouping, seems to enjoy unlimited freedom and resources for political campaigning, which is justified as "meeting the cadre", while the activities of the political parties, the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) in particular, continue to be restricted.

Much worse was the case of the reports on corruption involving the Minister of Transportation Haryanto Dhanutirto. It has been announced that the case of the transportation minister is considered "closed" by the President.

It is hard to explain why this case has not been examined by an independent body of inquiry. This would not prejudice the principle of the presumption of innocence. Any decision on what constitutes a criminal case should be made by a court of law. That is only fair in a democratic state based on the rule of law. It would also ensure a clean government.

To affirm simply that the minister concerned has "repaid" what he owed for his family's expenses, the legality of which seems to have been in question, appears to run counter to the rule of law. And to emphasize the "leaking" rather than the contents of the reports is to brush aside the real issue. This may have the effect of distracting attention from the main issue at hand. Besides, the possibility should not be ruled out that similar cases may involve other ministers or high-ranking officials.

We seem to be going through a crisis not only of confidence, but also of values, which seem to have been turned upside down. We are no longer sure of what is right and what is wrong, what is good and what is bad. The only criterion seems to be "power", whether one is in the center of political power, close to it, or far away from it. With the case of the transportation minister now declared closed, the hope for a clean and authoritative government seems far from coming to fruition.

The political temperature in the country is running high, according to the home affairs minister. Will it run higher or cool down in the new year? In all events, this may have much to do with the coming general election, which is after all well over one year away.

The government may try to win greater public confidence, thereby reassuring the people and cooling down the political temperature, and perhaps improving its chance of a genuine electoral victory -- rather than, as has been alleged in the past, one achieved through rigging or manipulation. This will be possible if it takes positive and constructive steps to accommodate the current public aspirations for justice, openness and transparency, and for reform and further democratization. This can be done if better coordination is seriously attempted among cabinet ministers and military leaders to ensure consistency and firm leadership.

Otherwise, in the absence of a credible alternative contender for national leadership -- not likely in the offing and probably unlikely in the light of prevailing Indonesian cultural values -- we may be in for a continuously declining political situation with a deepening crisis of confidence and of values.

The writer is a member of the Board of Directors at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.