Indonesian Markets on Alert! Major Economic Data Set for Release Next Week
The Indonesian financial market is set to face a busy week from 28 September to 2 October 2026. A number of important economic data from both domestic and international sources are scheduled for release, potentially impacting the movement of the Rupiah, bonds, and the stock market.
Domestically, primary attention is focused on the Indonesian Manufacturing PMI, import-export and trade balance data, and September inflation. This data will provide the latest picture regarding the strength of industrial activity, the resilience of the external sector, and the direction of domestic price pressures.
Externally, markets will closely monitor a series of critical data from the United States, ranging from JOLTS Job Openlag, PCE inflation, economic growth, unemployment rates, to Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). These figures will serve as vital indicators for the market to gauge US economic strength and the direction of Federal Reserve (The Fed) policy.
Additionally, China’s manufacturing PMI, Japan’s unemployment rate, and Eurozone inflation will also be closely watched, as they may influence global growth prospects and sentiment towards risky assets.
- US Job Openings
The United States will release the August period Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data on Tuesday (29/9/2026) at 21:00 WIB.
In July 2026, the number of job openings in the US was recorded at 7.271 million, an increase from the revised 7.182 million in June. Despite the increase, the figure remained below the market expectation of 7.30 million. The rise occurred primarily in the durable goods manufacturing, healthcare and social assistance, wholesale trade, and construction sectors.
Meanwhile, the number of hires and total separations remained relatively stable at around 5.1 million. The number of workers who voluntarily quit also remained relatively unchanged at 3.1 million, while layoffs and discharges were around 1.7 million.
The August release will be scrutinised to see how strong US labour demand is ahead of other major employment data releases. A decrease in job openings could signal a cooling labour market and strengthen expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing. Conversely, a strong increase could indicate that labour demand remains solid, making the Fed more cautious regarding interest rate cuts.
- China Manufacturing PMI
China will release the September period RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data on Wednesday (30/9/2026) at 08:45 WIB.
In August 2026, China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5, up from 50.9 in July, exceeding market expectations of 51.0. A figure above 50 indicates that manufacturing activity is in an expansionary zone.
This increase was supported by faster growth in output and new orders. New orders increased for 15 consecutive months, the longest period since 2018, while foreign sales recorded their fastest growth in six months. Production also grew for nine consecutive months and recorded its strongest expansion in three months.
The September release will be closely watched to see if China’s manufacturing momentum can be sustained. A PMI remaining above 50 could strengthen signals of a recovery in Chinese industrial activity and demand, which is crucial for Indonesia as one of its major trading partners. Conversely, a decline back towards or below 50 could increase concerns regarding a Chinese economic slowdown and global commodity demand.
- US PCE Inflation
The United States will release the August period Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Wednesday (30/9/2026) at 19:30 WIB. This data is one of the primary indicators monitored by the Federal Reserve in determining the direction of interest rate policy.
In July 2026, PCE inflation was recorded at 3.7% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month and higher than the market expectation of 3.6%. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy components, stood at 3.3% year-on-year, in line with market expectations but still far above the Fed’s inflation target of 2%.
High PCE inflation indicates that price pressures in the US have not yet fully subsided. Core inflation remains above 3%, so markets will observe whether the August data begins to show a downward trend or if price pressures remain persistent.
The August release will be vital for expectations regarding the direction of Fed interest rates. Lower inflation could strengthen the room for the US central bank to ease monetary policy, while high or rising inflation could make the Fed more cautious in cutting interest rates. Such changes in expectations have the potential to affect the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and capital flows to emerging markets, including Indonesia.
- US Economic Growth
The United States will release the advanced estimate for second-quarter 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on Wednesday (30/9/2026) at 19:30 WIB.
In the previous estimate, the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.5% in Q2-2026, slowing from 2.1% in the previous quarter. This growth was supported by a 3.4% surge in household consumption and a 7.0% growth in fixed investment, including an 8.5% increase in non-residential investment driven by demand related to Artificial Intelligence (AI).
On the other hand, government spending fell by 1.0%, while international trade acted as a drag on growth after imports surged by 12.5%, higher than the 4.5% increase in exports.