Indonesian Disaster Experts Association Reminds DIY to Prepare for Potential Megathrust Earthquake

Experts in disaster management in Indonesia have reminded the government and residents of the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY) to prepare for the potential megathrust earthquake, which is predicted to have a 200-year recurrence cycle. It is currently estimated to be in the final 30-year phase. Dwikorita Karnawati, Chair of the Board of the Indonesian Association of Disaster Experts (IABI), stated that the southern Java region, including Yogyakarta, is now in the last 30 years of that major cycle, according to studies by experts from the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) or ITB University. “This is not to frighten, but the result of scientific studies to support policy. We are at the end of the 200-year cycle where the energy has not yet been released. The potential magnitude could reach 8.7, so preparedness in DIY must be increased seriously,” she said during a seminar commemorating the 20th anniversary of the Yogyakarta Earthquake, attended from Jakarta on Thursday (16/4/2026). Dwikorita, who is also a former head of BMKG, emphasised the importance of building adaptive infrastructure, as implemented at Yogyakarta International Airport (YIA), to minimise the risk of casualties when that megathrust energy is released. The YIA airport is considered by experts to be the only aviation infrastructure in Southeast Asia that is seriously designed to withstand earthquake shocks of magnitude 8.7 as well as tsunamis up to 15 metres high. The building is designed to remain sturdy and capable of serving as a temporary evacuation site for around 12,000 people on the mezzanine floor and terminal.