Indonesian Deputy Foreign Minister Outlines Three Scenarios for Iran Conflict, from Peace to Nuclear Escalation

The Indonesian Deputy Foreign Minister, Anis Matting, believes that the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States remains in an inconclusive phase. According to him, there are three major scenarios currently playing out on the ground that will determine the geopolitical direction of the Middle East and the future of Islamic world defence cooperation.

In an exclusive interview in Jakarta on Monday (8/6/2026), Anis identified the three scenarios as peace, a wider escalation of war, and a status quo condition of ‘no peace, no war’. “If we look at the current situation, this is a struggle between the peace scenario and the escalation scenario. We do not yet know which will prevail,” Anis stated.

He noted that if the conflict concludes through peaceful channels in the near future, Iran’s current position is relatively advantaged. This is because many of the initial objectives sought by Israel and the United States since the outbreak of war have failed to materialise. He assessed that the regime in Tehran remains intact, with no internal political upheaval to topple the government, and Iran’s military capabilities remain sufficient to defend against external pressures.

“If the measure of victory is the targets set at the beginning, then those targets have not been achieved. Therefore, a perception has emerged that Iran won the first round,” he said.

However, Anis warned that the war is not truly over, noting that there are efforts potentially capable of disrupting the path to peace. He highlighted ongoing Israeli attacks in Lebanon and several regions of Iran, suggesting these strikes could be interpreted as attempts to undermine the possibility of a peace agreement.

He also emphasised new developments in Iran’s diplomatic stance. For the first time, Tehran has included the issue of Lebanon as part of its negotiating agenda. From Iran’s perspective, attacks on Lebanon are now viewed as directly linked to Iran’s own security.

“This means the spectrum of conflict is widening. Iran is now stating that there will be no peace talks as long as Israel continues to attack Lebanon,” Anis remarked. He added that such an expansion of the conflict’s scope has the potential to complicate ongoing negotiation processes.