Indonesian coffee exports may fall to 260,000 tons
Indonesian coffee exports may fall to 260,000 tons
SINGAPORE (Reuter): Indonesia's robusta coffee exports in 1997 will probably fall 10 to 20 percent to around 260,000-285,000 tons because of heavy winds and rain which pounded its coffee farms, regional traders said yesterday.
Another major factor for the export dip is increasing domestic consumption among Indonesia's 200 million people, the dealers said. Exports last year were more than 320,000 tons.
"Maximum, I believe Indonesian coffee exports should be between 270,000 to 285,000 tons. Domestic consumption has also been eating into exports," a senior dealer for a European commodity house told Reuters.
"I think exports will reach only 260,000 tons," a coffee dealer for U.S. commodity house said.
Heavy rains and strong winds in June and July last year stripped many trees of their flowers and hindered the flowering of other, traders said.
Coffee bean supplies in Indonesia are rising although the main harvest season is still about eight weeks away.
"The new crop is coming up in the market," a dealer said.
Prices of Indonesia's benchmark Grade 4 coffee, 80 defects, was seen by the trade at around US$1,400-$1,500 a ton FOB Lampung port, unchanged from last week.
Regional dealers were also closely watching the recent turmoil in Papua New Guinea and said they hoped the crisis would be over before the bulk of the crop is harvested.
"The real weight of the crop in Papua New Guinea comes in April to May," one trader said, adding its would be made up of 55,000 tons of arabica beans while the remaining 5,000 tons would be robusta.
Australia and Germany account for 70 percent of the country's coffee sales. Papua New Guinea produces about one percent of the world's coffee.
Regional business in Asia has slowed down ahead of the Easter holidays starting on Friday with many exporters sidelined in the face of volatility in the coffee markets of London and New York. "This kind of market will drive you crazy," a U.S. trader declared.
Coffee traders said the robusta futures market in London should open $200-$250 higher after prices bounced all over the place on Tuesday.
The key May LIFFE futures contract sank to an intra-day low of $1,515 but soon recovered after New York went higher and closed $26 up on the day at $1,567.
"In my 17 years in the coffee business, I've never seen a market like this. It's like the Dow leaping 1,200 points in a day," one European trader said.
In Vietnam, trading has slowed to a crawl.
"Today is probably the last day of action before Easter," a dealer for a European trading house said, adding "there are no more problems with congestion in Ho Chi Minh city."
Prices of Vietnam's Grade 2 coffee, 8.0 percent black and broken, was quoted by the trade at $1,350-$1,400 a ton FOB Saigon port, slightly easier against last week's $1,350-$1,420.
Vietnamese exporters probably still have about 60,000 to 70,000 tons of robusta coffee in their warehouses. The volume of coffee exported has already reached an estimated 200,000 to 210,000 tons, traders said.
"It's slow in Vietnam. I think we're down to the last 20 percent of the crop," a dealer said.
A meager 453 lots were traded on Tuesday in the robusta coffee contract of the Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM). The contract was untraded on Monday.
The 153 lots of the May contract was settled at $1,432 a ton, the 150 lots in the July contract finished at $1,427 a ton while the September contract closed at $1,420 a ton, SICOM said.