Indonesia Urged to Anticipate Impact of US-Iran Conflict on Trade and Energy
The government needs to anticipate the impact of the prolonged conflict between the United States (US) and Iran on international trade and energy security. This step is considered important to maintain national economic stability amidst rising global geopolitical uncertainty.
Executive Director of the Global Insight Forum (GIF), Teuku Rezasyah, stated that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict shows that geopolitical dynamics are currently influenced not only by military power but also by geo-economic interests, energy security, and international trade routes.
“Various diplomatic initiatives that have been pursued have not yet resulted in a permanent solution due to the low level of trust between the parties and the limited effectiveness of international mechanisms in managing the conflict,” Rezasyah said during a webinar on the US-Iran war, quoted on Sunday (19/7/2026).
According to him, a prolonged conflict in the Middle East has the potential to put pressure on the global economy, especially if it disrupts strategic shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz. This route is one of the main arteries for global oil distribution and international trade.
Disruptions to global logistics flows could increase shipping costs, disrupt supply chains, and drive up energy and commodity prices. Such conditions could affect trade activities and economic stability in various countries, including Indonesia.
Therefore, Rezasyah believes the government needs to strengthen economic resilience through export market diversification, supply chain reinforcement, and adaptive economic diplomacy. He added that Indonesia’s position as a country with a free and active foreign policy is an important asset for expanding economic cooperation while maintaining regional stability.
He added that Indonesia has the opportunity to strengthen its role as a middle power capable of bridging dialogue between nations while supporting the stability needed for global economic growth.
Head of the Middle East Studies Programme at the University of Indonesia (UI), Mulawarman Hannase, said that dynamics in the Middle East are now increasingly influenced by energy interests, international trade routes, technology, and geo-economics.
“This shift also shows the emergence of middle power countries that are beginning to play a more independent role in determining the region’s political direction without relying entirely on the United States or other major powers,” he said.
Senior Fellow at GIF, Chandra Purnama, stated that the effectiveness of multilateral diplomacy will be a crucial factor in maintaining global stability amidst rising geopolitical rivalry.
“Therefore, future conflict resolution is expected to increasingly depend on the role of middle power countries that can build a new balance through multilateral diplomacy,” he said.