Indonesia today: Waiting for a new Bonaparte

Indonesia today: Waiting for a new Bonaparte

Part 1 of 2

Satish Mishra
Head
United Nations Support
Facility for
Indonesian Recovey
Jakarta
satish.mishra@undp.org

These are confusing times. Indonesia is a country praised for
its religious tolerance. Yet it is rocked by religious and ethnic
strife. For a quarter of a century it was the home of one of the
world's great economic miracles. Today it is in the midst of its
deepest economic crisis. Until only five years ago, it was ruled
by a proud military, supporting a single autocrat. Today, power
is dispersed between the executive and the parliament and between
central and regional government.

Only yesterday, foreign business and foreign personnel were
welcomed as the harbingers of technology and enterprise. Today,
they are suspected and feared as the precursors of a new global
Imperium. Until recently, the Indonesian worker was thought as
hard working and disciplined. Today, he is accused of being both
unruly and unproductive. Only a short time ago, the world seemed
to be knocking at Indonesia's door looking for opportunities for
new business and new deals. Today, investors fly to safety.

Yesterday's miracle and yesterday's political order seem to
have been consigned to the warehouse of fond relics and
historical memorabilia.

Is it any wonder that "uncertainty" represents the defining
characteristic of the Indonesian national psyche? This
uncertainty is combined with a feeling of powerlessness. Around
half of Indonesia's 210 million people live on the edge of
survival. Thousands stream into the cities in search for jobs and
a future. In some such as Jakarta, they see new construction and
new cars. They see shopping malls filled with beautiful things
and equally beautiful, made-up women. They wonder why they can no
longer make ends meet when so many have so much. As another month
of Ramadan draws near, the city of Jakarta considers shutting the
doors to new migrants coming to the city looking for work.

Uncertainty and powerlessness is a dangerous cocktail. It is
especially dangerous when it comes on the heels of a generation
of economic growth and expanding job opportunities. The danger is
compounded when economic growth is followed by sudden collapse
and a feeling of national humiliation. This combination of
humiliation, powerlessness and uncertainty has spawned its own
demons. Often demons such as these have devoured not only their
own societies but much of the world around them. The history of
so many dictatorships is the history of frustrated public hopes.

The prolonged economic slowdown, the demise of established
institutions and of familiar ways of doing things has led to a
hunger for certainty. This is reflected in the frequent
references to a strong leader who will provide order and
certainty. It is also reflected in an open lamentation that
Indonesia's new political system has failed to generate the
firmness and political will to deal with jobs, foreigners, big
business, military, trade unions, national unity and Uncle Sam.

You can take your own pick driven by your own personal
prejudices. Taken against this stream of emotion and frustration
democracy is often seen to be a luxury only the rich countries
can afford. For many, growth first; democracy later, seems to be
the only way out of the current impasse. This is a widely
prevalent view shared by both Indonesian and foreigner alike.

History is never as simple as that. Societies might elect
presidents. But they do not choose benevolent dictatorships.
Autocracies are foisted. They represent instruments of control
and privilege. They constrain and contain, not liberate and
encourage. A preference for dictatorship is a sad obsession. It
ignores the evidence of history. Look for a Soeharto and you
might find a Mobutu or Amin. Equate order and discipline with
economic growth. You might end with economic collapse and ruin.
Search for national unity within the confines of military
supremacy. You might find instead latent dissent and open
rebellion.

Economic crises and collapses are divisive times. They
exacerbate social stresses and fault-lines. They destroy trust
and social capital. The great task of the recovery is to rebuild
this capital, to heal open wounds, to convince the citizen that
the costs of the economic demise will be shared by everyone in a
socially just way.

Social justice has to be a building block of recovery. It
cannot be a mere footnote to growth oriented policies. Doubtless
growth and a return to prosperity might ease the cultural and
political shock of Indonesia's systemic transition. But, the
secret of future stable growth lies in a direct approach to
social divisions. Growth before democracy is a false doctrine.
Democracy is a tool for a socially-just sharing of the burdens of
hard and divisive times. Without a new social consensus,
sustained growth along with the benevolent dictator is but a
wistful dream of the desperate. The new economic literature on
the link between democratic governance and economic growth
presents an important component of the logic of democracy.

Part two of this article explores this underlying logic of
democracy and outlines some crucial next steps in the Indonesian
transition.

The opinions expressed in this article are strictly personal.