Indonesia says Asian al Qaeda arm weakened

Indonesia says Asian al Qaeda arm weakened

Agencies, Jakarta/Sydney

A Southeast Asian militant group seen as al-Qaeda's regional arm
has been weakened by a series of arrests but, with two of its
masterminds on the run, the network still poses a threat, an
Indonesian official said on Tuesday.

The International Crisis Group (ICG), a security think-tank,
said meanwhile that Malaysian fugitives Azahari bin Husin and
Noordin M. Top, key members of Jamaah Islamiyah (JI), could be
tempted to attack another Western target in Indonesia, the
world's most populous Muslim country.

"What is clear is that Azahari and Top have not been arrested
and these two masterminds are still roaming around out there,"
said Ansyaad Mbai, head of the counter-terrorism desk at the
office of Indonesia's chief security minister.

"With all of the past arrests, their strength indeed has been
reduced. Their capabilities clearly have largely diminished, but
I cannot say they are out of the picture," Mbai told Reuters.

"Hunting Azahari is still our top priority and our hope is
nobody, including the U.S. and Australia, will become their
targets," he added.

Jamaah Islamiyah has been blamed for the 2002 bombings on the
Indonesian holiday island of Bali that killed 202 people,
including 88 Australians, and the 2004 bomb attack on the
Australian embassy in Jakarta that killed 10 Indonesians.

Azahari and Top are accused of masterminding the embassy
attack.

The group has also been accused of the 2003 car bombing at
Jakarta's JW Marriott Hotel that killed 12 people.
Indonesia has arrested scores of suspects for the various
bombings and many of them have been prosecuted and convicted.

ICG head Gareth Evans said on Tuesday in Sydney that
the JI is no longer a serious threat to Australia.

The network has had its power greatly reduced by police and
intelligence work, Evans says in a speech to be delivered later
Tuesday.

He says the International Crisis Group's perception is that
"the JI regional division that covered Australia has been
effectively smashed by Indonesian police and intelligence
operations, well supported by Australian agencies, and that JI
itself no longer poses a serious threat in Indonesia or
elsewhere".

"The fugitive Malaysian bomb-makers for the embassy attack --
Noordin and Azahari -- may be tempted by another western target
in Indonesia, but a household-name U.S. enterprise is seen as
more likely than anything identifiably Australian."

Australia ranked "well behind the U.S. and UK in the terrorist
wish-lists" although its profile had been raised by Canberra's
support for the U.S. and the contribution of troops to Iraq, the
former Australian foreign minister says.

"All I can say is that such information and analysis as is
available to me suggests that the threat to Australians at home
and abroad is real but moderate," Evans says.

Evans says that while the threat of terror attacks should
never be underestimated, he is dubious of the intelligence
governments receive on terrorism.

"... I maintain a special reservoir of beady-eyed skepticism
toward most products of the intelligence community -- especially
the most glittering," he says.

"... none of us, least of all governments, know nearly as much
as we would like to know, or sometimes say we know...

Evans says governments must not become so spooked by terror
threats that they fundamentally change their nation's way of
life.

"Extreme and immediate risks may require extreme behavioral
change, but lesser risks don't, and it is important that
governments try as best as they can to calibrate and explain the
risks as they are perceived at any given time," he says.