Indonesia projects July crude price at US$67-US$71 per barrel

“The actual price will depend on market developments and the global geopolitical situation,” Laode Sulaeman, the ministry’s Director General of Oil and Gas, told ANTARA on Monday.

He noted that key risks to watch include the potential escalation of new attacks that could disrupt oil production. Furthermore, increased supply from the Middle East following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could exert downward pressure on prices.

Laode affirmed that the Indonesian government is continuously monitoring the global oil market to maintain price stability and safeguard national energy security.

“We are ensuring that the ICP formula remains transparent and reflective of international market dynamics to maintain accountability for state finances and upstream oil and gas operations,” he remarked.

The government will use supply, demand, and geopolitical developments as a baseline to monitor the ICP, as shifts in these three factors will determine the price trajectory throughout July 2026.

Previously, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set the average ICP for June 2026 at US$83.45 per barrel. This marks a decline from May 2026, which stood at US$106.56 per barrel.

The June ICP was formalized through the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Decree No. 282.K/MG.03/MEM.M/2026 regarding the Indonesian Crude Price for June 2026.

According to Laode, geopolitical developments in the Middle East were the primary factor pushing the price down throughout June.

“This decline was generally driven by easing tensions in the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran throughout June,” he said.

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Translator: Putu Indah, Raka Adji