Indonesia Prepared to Navigate Unpredictable Global Economic Downturn

The global economy is currently entering a period of decline. The direction of economic progress is no longer merely uncertain, but has become entirely unpredictable.

his was revealed by the Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), Filianingsih Hendarta, during the Lampung Financial Festival on Saturday (5/9/2026).

“In the past, it was said there was uncertainty, which was manageable because it could still be estimated, but currently, it is not uncertainty but unpredictability,” said Filianingsih.

She noted that observations regarding the direction of the global economic condition were also raised during the recent G20 forum. The primary cause is the ongoing wars in various parts of the world that show no signs of abating.

“I have just returned from the G20, where it was stated that the world is not doing well. Global challenges and volatility remain high, and the war in the Middle East continues to haunt the global economy,” she remarked.

According to Filianngsih, when the direction of the global economy can no longer be predicted, no one can estimate when a turning point towards stability might occur.

“It cannot be predicted where it is headed; it is like a bajaj in Jakarta—we do not know if it will turn right or left, only the driver and God know,” Filianingsih emphasised.

Nevertheless, Filianingsih ensured that Bank Indonesia, as the monetary authority mandated by the constitution to maintain the stability of the rupiah exchange rate, payment systems, and the financial system, as well as to encourage growth, will continue to navigate the direction of the Indonesian economy in accordance with sustainable growth targets.

“At BI, we have the mandate to stabilise the rupiah exchange rate, payment systems, and the financial system, as well as to drive economic growth, and this is what we are doing by implementing our policy mix,” she asserted.

With economic stability proven to be maintained in the second quarter of 2026 with growth of 5.29%, following the growth rate of 5.6% in the first quarter of 2026, Filianingsih believes that the economy could grow up to 5.7% by the end of the year.

“We observe and believe that this will continue to increase; growth is estimated to be between 4.9% and 5.7% in 2026, while inflation remains within Bank Indonesia’s target of 2.5% plus or minus 1%,” said Filianingsih.