Indonesia Must Become a Nation That is Difficult to Coerce

In the history of international relations, power is not always determined by who possesses the largest army, the greatest economy, or the widest territory. There is a quieter form of power that is often far more decisive: the ability to say no when national interests demand it.

A nation becomes strong when its strategic decisions are not easily dictated by external pressure, when disruptions to a single supply source cannot paralyse its economy, when global price fluctuations do not immediately alter its policy direction, and when relationships with other nations are built on choice rather than compulsion.

In an increasingly interconnected world, such an ability becomes even more vital. Indonesia does not need to be a nation that requires no one. Indonesia must be a nation that is difficult to coerce.

This idea is crucial because the modern world is built upon dependency. No large economy truly stands alone. Nations require energy from others, technology from global innovation hubs, capital from international markets, raw materials from various regions, and markets to sell their products.

Even nations with abundant resources still require technology, infrastructure, financing, and trade access. Therefore, pursuing absolute independence is not a realistic strategy. What is far more important is ensuring that dependency does not transform into vulnerability.

Interdependence is a reality, but vulnerability is a choice. A wise nation is not one that eliminates all its dependencies, but one that manages those dependencies so that it always possesses alternatives.

Energy history provides many examples of this. The oil crisis of the 1970s demonstrated how dependence on energy can alter the economic and political policies of industrialised nations. When supplies were disrupted and prices surged, inflation rose, industries faced pressure, and governments were forced to make decisions they had not previously planned. Energy revealed its true face at that time.

It is not merely fuel for the economy, but a resource that can influence a nation’s manoeuvrability. A nation that requires energy but lacks sufficient supply options will have a different bargaining position compared to a nation that possesses reserves, diversification, infrastructure, and alternatives.

This remains relevant today, even as its form changes. Energy dependency no longer pertains solely to oil. Gas, electricity, batteries, strategic minerals, power generation technology, electrical grids, industrial components, and even digital systems are now part of economic security.

A nation may not experience energy shortages directly, but it may face risks if its power grid depends on specific technologies, its industry depends on a single source of raw materials, or its strategic supply chains rely on a single route. In an increasingly complex world, a nation’s weak points can lie far beyond its own borders.

The Covid-19 pandemic provided a very clear lesson. Disruptions in one country can halt component production in another, disrupt transportation, increase logistics costs, and ultimately affect goods prices worldwide.

Subsequent wars in various regions have shown how energy, food, fertilisers, and trade routes can become part of geopolitical competition. The lesson is simple: a nation does not need to experience war within its own territory to feel the geopolitical impact. In an interconnected economy, disruptions elsewhere can enter through prices, supplies, and production chains.

Therefore, national resilience in the 21st century cannot be built through military defence alone. It also requires resilience in energy, food, industry, technology, finance, and supply chains. All these sectors ultimately share the same goal: ensuring that when external pressure occurs, the nation retains the space to make decisions based on its own interests.

Energy is one of the most critical points in this framework because almost all economic activity depends on it. Factories require electricity. Transportation requires fuel. Data centres require a stable power supply. Households require energy for daily activities.

Agriculture requires energy for irrigation and distribution. Industry requires gas, electricity, and various other forms of energy. If energy is disrupted, the impact does not stop at the energy sector; it spreads throughout the entire economy. Therefore, energy security is essentially the economic ability to keep moving when the world experiences disruption.

For Indonesia, building such resilience does not mean we must close ourselves off from the global market. Indonesia still needs to import oil, technology, investment, and various strategic products. We also have an interest in exporting commodities and attracting foreign capital.

The issue is not trade itself, but the structure of the dependency it creates. If a nation has only one supplier for critical needs, one route for bringing in strategic commodities, one irreplaceable technology, or one market that absorbs the majority of its exports, then its manoeuvrability becomes narrower.

Conversely, the more options a nation possesses, the greater its resilience. Diversifying energy suppliers provides choice. Strategic reserves provide time. Storage infrastructure provides flexibility. Connected electrical grids provide alternatives. Domestic production provides a buffer.