Indonesia Forecast to Face Intense Boiling Heat as El Niño Looms
A number of oceanographic and atmospheric indicators show a tendency for the El Niño phenomenon to develop in the second half to the end of 2026. This condition needs to be anticipated through continuous monitoring of the sea and atmosphere to strengthen preparedness for potential climate impacts in Indonesia.
Professor R. Dwi Susanto of the University of Maryland stated that various observational data and climate models indicate changes in sea conditions in the Pacific Ocean leading to the formation of El Niño. “One of the main indicators is the increasing heat reserve below the surface of the Pacific Ocean, which has the potential to push the movement of warm water masses eastward,” Dwi explained.
According to Dwi, observational data and climate models show an accumulation of heat below the surface of the Pacific Ocean. Concurrently, Kelvin waves are beginning to push warm water masses from the western Pacific towards the eastern Pacific, which is one of the characteristics of El Niño development. He assessed that these changes can be observed through subsurface sea temperatures, sea surface height, and wind patterns in the tropical Pacific region. Various international climate prediction models also show the same tendency.
“Indonesia has an important position in the global climate system because it is located in the western Pacific warm pool, the region with the warmest tropical sea surface temperatures in the world,” he clarified. Furthermore, Indonesia is the pathway for the Indonesian Throughflow (Arlindo) connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Thus, changes in sea conditions in Indonesian waters can be an important indicator for understanding El Niño development. Monitoring sea temperatures, Arlindo dynamics, and shifts in atmospheric convection centres in Indonesia’s maritime region is considered helpful in detecting climate change early.
Dwi further cautioned that the impact of El Niño on Indonesia is not solely determined by conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Interaction with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the Indian Ocean also plays a major role in determining the severity of its impact. “We cannot only look at the El Niño index. The Indian Ocean Dipole condition must also be monitored because the combination of both can produce a much greater impact than if only one phenomenon occurs,” he said. He cited the 1997-1998 event when a strong El Niño occurred simultaneously with a positive IOD. The combination of these two phenomena caused a significant decrease in rainfall and increased the risk of drought and forest and land fires in various parts of Indonesia.
According to him, the development of a positive IOD can be monitored through changes in sea surface temperatures in the waters south of Java and Sumatra. Stronger cooling in that area is generally associated with an increased risk of drought. Dwi added that a number of current prediction models show the probability of El Niño developing at the end of 2026 with a tendency to be in the strong to very strong category. Therefore, various mitigation measures need to be prepared early, including through water resource management, adjustment of planting patterns, and strengthening forest and land fire prevention efforts. “Preparations must be made without causing panic. The important thing is to ensure that climate information can be used as a basis for planning and mitigation,” he said.