India to be ASEAN dialog partner
India to be ASEAN dialog partner
By V. Anjaiah
JAKARTA (JP): In the fifth summit of ASEAN in Bangkok in December 1995 leaders of the grouping discussed a proposal by Singapore Prime Minister Go Chok Tong to enhance India's present ASEAN sectoral partner status to full dialog partner.
Though the seven-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations has not formally announced the decision, the grouping has already sent a letter to New Delhi in this regard and India has welcomed the ASEAN move.
"There is a positive improvement... we are informed that we are going to be a full dialog partner of the ASEAN," said India's Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee during his recent trip to Thailand.
It is understood that Indonesia, which is the next chair of ASEAN, will follow up by officially notifying India and other dialog partners.
An ASEAN endorsement in this matter would be a big boost for the reformist Rao government, which has adopted a "Look East" policy to improve its ties, which suffered from mutual suspicion during the Cold War, with Southeast Asia in general and ASEAN in particular.
At the height of the Cold War, relations between India and ASEAN had their ups and downs, perhaps more downs than ups.
"ASEAN frequently saw India as a partner and tool of the Soviet Union, a perception India believes was wrong, while India tended to see ASEAN as another anti-Communist organization sponsored by the U.S. which ASEAN believes was also misleading," said George Tanham, an American expert on Indian affairs.
Due to its apprehensions about mighty China with whom it had border problems, and strong enmity with its neighbor Pakistan, which had close security links to superpower U.S., India chose to take shelter under the Soviet security umbrella. But ASEAN perceived India-Soviet ties in a different light.
The gap widened when India recognized the pro-Vietnam Heng Samrin government in Cambodia in 1980 which was bitterly opposed by ASEAN. In spite of these foreign policy differences, India was able to maintain bilateral relations with individual countries of ASEAN.
Since the end of the Cold War, India has not only realized its mistake of ignoring the importance and potential of ASEAN but also has become more mature in relations with Southeast Asia in general and ASEAN in particular.
Apparently South Block, where the office of India's external affairs ministry is located, is pursuing a two-edged policy: one to develop a formal bond with ASEAN, and the second to have solid economic and security relations with all member countries of the organization.
Since his rise to power in 1991, Indian Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao, who saved India from economic chaos through his ambitious liberalization policies, has shown a special interest in visiting most of the ASEAN countries and creating personal rapport with ASEAN leaders.
For example, he visited Indonesia in 1992, Thailand in 1993, Singapore in 1994 and Malaysia in 1995. He utilized every opportunity, whether it be a summit or a UN session, to hold bilateral talks with ASEAN leaders and extended state invitations to his counterparts to visit India.
He sent his ministers, including Finance Minister Man Mohan Singh, the architect of Indian economic reforms, and Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee to the booming region from time to time.
"Never before had an Indian prime minister visited the region in such short intervals. ASEAN countries have taken note of this," commented Thailand Deputy Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan.
ASEAN, which shares some strategic perceptions with New Delhi, accorded India sectoral dialog partnership status during its 1992 Summit in Singapore in recognition of India's efforts to improve ties.
Both India and ASEAN agreed to concentrate on areas of trade, tourism, investment, science and technology. Two years later the ASEAN-Indian Joint Sectoral Cooperation Committee was formed in Bali to institutionalize India's status in ASEAN.
A close look at the cooperation between India and ASEAN in the agreed areas reveals that the trade has remained at a low ebb but has improved slowly in recent years.
For example, India's exports to ASEAN countries account for only 16 to 18 percent of its total at present, which is an increase from about 6 percent in 1992 and 3.5 percent in 1980. Its imports from ASEAN countries were only 5.4 percent during the 1992/1993 period.
But India's trade with Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia took a significant leap in 1995.
Singapore's total trade with India reached US$2.84 billion in 1995, up 29 percent from 1994. Likewise, Thailand's bilateral trade with India reached $960 million, and Indonesia's $900 million in 1995, up from $596 million in 1994.
On the other hand, investment flows, which are key to trade flows, between India and ASEAN have remained at a minimum. The remaining areas also followed suit.
"The fault may be mutual. What matters more is that there was not enough substance even in the five identified areas of cooperation to justify procedural acceleration," commented The Straits Times, a Singapore daily, in its editorial.
Yet there is vast scope for improvement in many areas in light of not only economic reforms but the promising market of India's 250 million nouveau riche middle class population.
With a Gross Domestic Product of $1.18 trillion, the Indian economy has been growing at the same pace as the ASEAN countries' average growth. And its levels of foreign debt, inflation, budget deficit and perhaps corruption are lower than China's.
On the security front, India and ASEAN share a common concern about ever-mighty China. Given its strength, size and capability, India could be the only counterweight to China, a potential hegemonic regional power of Asia which could disrupt the balance of power in Southeast and South Asia regions as well as the Indian Ocean and South China Sea.
As a full ASEAN dialog partner, India, the world's fifth and Asia's third largest economy, can hold wide ranging talks with the young Tigers of this dynamic region on political and economic issues.
It can also participate in the deliberations of the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference and ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), an increasingly important regional security gathering.
However, some ASEAN members have reservations about India's status in ASEAN. They fear that ASEAN could be drawn into specific problems of the Indian subcontinent, which is Asia's last troubled region, and other South Asian countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka may also seek ASEAN dialog partner status.
"ASEAN is looking more towards peace and stability in East Asia rather than in South Asia," said Thailand Foreign Minister M.R. Kasem S. Kasemsri while reacting to the reservations about India. New Delhi is keen to improve ties with the ASEAN region and does not want to raise any South Asian problems in ARF.
This was evident when Mukherjee made it clear during his visit to Bangkok that India will not bring the Kashmir issue into ARF discussions.
By granting full dialog partner status to India, ASEAN would not lose anything. But it would gain a lot in terms of economic opportunities and security matters.
"The inclusion of India in the ARF will benefit Southeast Asian countries by securing the Indian Ocean," said Prof. Baladas Ghosal, an Indian expert on Southeast Asian affairs at India's prestigious Jawaharlal Nehru University, New India.
Indeed India, in spite of its political turmoil and social ills, deserves to be a key player of Asia. For that the ASEAN decision to grant full dialog partner status to India comes at the right time.