India to be ASEAN dialog partner

India to be ASEAN dialog partner

By V. Anjaiah

JAKARTA (JP): In the fifth summit of ASEAN in Bangkok in
December 1995 leaders of the grouping discussed a proposal by
Singapore Prime Minister Go Chok Tong to enhance India's present
ASEAN sectoral partner status to full dialog partner.

Though the seven-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations
has not formally announced the decision, the grouping has already
sent a letter to New Delhi in this regard and India has welcomed
the ASEAN move.

"There is a positive improvement... we are informed that we
are going to be a full dialog partner of the ASEAN," said India's
Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee during his recent trip to
Thailand.

It is understood that Indonesia, which is the next chair of
ASEAN, will follow up by officially notifying India and other
dialog partners.

An ASEAN endorsement in this matter would be a big boost for
the reformist Rao government, which has adopted a "Look East"
policy to improve its ties, which suffered from mutual suspicion
during the Cold War, with Southeast Asia in general and ASEAN in
particular.

At the height of the Cold War, relations between India and
ASEAN had their ups and downs, perhaps more downs than ups.

"ASEAN frequently saw India as a partner and tool of the
Soviet Union, a perception India believes was wrong, while India
tended to see ASEAN as another anti-Communist organization
sponsored by the U.S. which ASEAN believes was also misleading,"
said George Tanham, an American expert on Indian affairs.

Due to its apprehensions about mighty China with whom it had
border problems, and strong enmity with its neighbor Pakistan,
which had close security links to superpower U.S., India chose to
take shelter under the Soviet security umbrella. But ASEAN
perceived India-Soviet ties in a different light.

The gap widened when India recognized the pro-Vietnam Heng
Samrin government in Cambodia in 1980 which was bitterly opposed
by ASEAN. In spite of these foreign policy differences, India was
able to maintain bilateral relations with individual countries of
ASEAN.

Since the end of the Cold War, India has not only realized its
mistake of ignoring the importance and potential of ASEAN but
also has become more mature in relations with Southeast Asia in
general and ASEAN in particular.

Apparently South Block, where the office of India's external
affairs ministry is located, is pursuing a two-edged policy: one
to develop a formal bond with ASEAN, and the second to have solid
economic and security relations with all member countries of the
organization.

Since his rise to power in 1991, Indian Prime Minister P.V.
Narasimha Rao, who saved India from economic chaos through his
ambitious liberalization policies, has shown a special interest
in visiting most of the ASEAN countries and creating personal
rapport with ASEAN leaders.

For example, he visited Indonesia in 1992, Thailand in 1993,
Singapore in 1994 and Malaysia in 1995. He utilized every
opportunity, whether it be a summit or a UN session, to hold
bilateral talks with ASEAN leaders and extended state invitations
to his counterparts to visit India.

He sent his ministers, including Finance Minister Man Mohan
Singh, the architect of Indian economic reforms, and Foreign
Minister Pranab Mukherjee to the booming region from time to
time.

"Never before had an Indian prime minister visited the region
in such short intervals. ASEAN countries have taken note of
this," commented Thailand Deputy Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan.

ASEAN, which shares some strategic perceptions with New Delhi,
accorded India sectoral dialog partnership status during its 1992
Summit in Singapore in recognition of India's efforts to improve
ties.

Both India and ASEAN agreed to concentrate on areas of trade,
tourism, investment, science and technology. Two years later the
ASEAN-Indian Joint Sectoral Cooperation Committee was formed in
Bali to institutionalize India's status in ASEAN.

A close look at the cooperation between India and ASEAN in the
agreed areas reveals that the trade has remained at a low ebb but
has improved slowly in recent years.

For example, India's exports to ASEAN countries account for
only 16 to 18 percent of its total at present, which is an
increase from about 6 percent in 1992 and 3.5 percent in 1980.
Its imports from ASEAN countries were only 5.4 percent during the
1992/1993 period.

But India's trade with Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia took
a significant leap in 1995.

Singapore's total trade with India reached US$2.84 billion in
1995, up 29 percent from 1994. Likewise, Thailand's bilateral
trade with India reached $960 million, and Indonesia's $900
million in 1995, up from $596 million in 1994.

On the other hand, investment flows, which are key to
trade flows, between India and ASEAN have remained at a minimum.
The remaining areas also followed suit.

"The fault may be mutual. What matters more is that there was
not enough substance even in the five identified areas of
cooperation to justify procedural acceleration," commented The
Straits Times, a Singapore daily, in its editorial.

Yet there is vast scope for improvement in many areas in light
of not only economic reforms but the promising market of India's
250 million nouveau riche middle class population.

With a Gross Domestic Product of $1.18 trillion, the Indian
economy has been growing at the same pace as the ASEAN countries'
average growth. And its levels of foreign debt, inflation, budget
deficit and perhaps corruption are lower than China's.

On the security front, India and ASEAN share a common concern
about ever-mighty China. Given its strength, size and capability,
India could be the only counterweight to China, a potential
hegemonic regional power of Asia which could disrupt the balance
of power in Southeast and South Asia regions as well as the
Indian Ocean and South China Sea.

As a full ASEAN dialog partner, India, the world's fifth and
Asia's third largest economy, can hold wide ranging talks with
the young Tigers of this dynamic region on political and economic
issues.

It can also participate in the deliberations of the ASEAN
Post-Ministerial Conference and ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), an
increasingly important regional security gathering.

However, some ASEAN members have reservations about India's
status in ASEAN. They fear that ASEAN could be drawn into
specific problems of the Indian subcontinent, which is Asia's
last troubled region, and other South Asian countries like
Pakistan and Sri Lanka may also seek ASEAN dialog partner status.

"ASEAN is looking more towards peace and stability in East
Asia rather than in South Asia," said Thailand Foreign Minister
M.R. Kasem S. Kasemsri while reacting to the reservations about
India. New Delhi is keen to improve ties with the ASEAN region
and does not want to raise any South Asian problems in ARF.

This was evident when Mukherjee made it clear during his visit
to Bangkok that India will not bring the Kashmir issue into ARF
discussions.

By granting full dialog partner status to India, ASEAN would
not lose anything. But it would gain a lot in terms of economic
opportunities and security matters.

"The inclusion of India in the ARF will benefit Southeast
Asian countries by securing the Indian Ocean," said Prof. Baladas
Ghosal, an Indian expert on Southeast Asian affairs at India's
prestigious Jawaharlal Nehru University, New India.

Indeed India, in spite of its political turmoil and social
ills, deserves to be a key player of Asia. For that the ASEAN
decision to grant full dialog partner status to India comes at
the right time.