India shut out of ASEAN Regional Forum

Tue, 31 Jan 1995, 00:00 WIB

By Ganganath Jha

NEW DELHI (JP): The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) came into
existence in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' post-
ministerial conference on July 25, 1993.

Its existence is meant to promote common understanding, mutual
confidence and goodwill in order to minimize the scope of
confrontation among the partners and to establish durable peace.

From the outset, ARF supported the drive to nurture habits of
consultation and cooperation pertaining to regional security.

While speaking about this forum, Jusuf Wanandi, head of the
supervisory board of the Jakarta-based Center for Strategic and
International Studies, observed that a multilateral forum for
dealing with regional security problems was needed to build
mutual confidence and prevent conflict and misunderstanding.

The evolution of ARF was meant to contain potential security
threats to peace, stability and prosperity in the region. The
ARF, seeking a non-military path to security, has an 18-member
Regional Consultative body, which includes Australia, Brunei,
Canada, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, New Zealand,
Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Russia, Singapore, South
Korea, Thailand, the United States, Vietnam and the European
Community. Only four APEC members -- Chile, Hong Kong, Mexico and
Taiwan -- are left out. Again four non-APEC members -- EC, Laos,
Russia and Vietnam -- are admitted members.

Its large membership shows that India is an important
omission. Being an immediate neighbor and sharing a common
maritime frontier with Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Myanmar,
stretching into thousands of miles, India is a natural ally of
the ASEAN states.

Any developments with significant bearings on the security
environment in Southeast Asia are bound to have implications for
India. Today India is at the crucial phase of nation building and
modernization. It has opened up to economic liberalization and
market economy and it needs to have the understanding and support
of the ASEAN.

A catastrophic development, such as the result of a Pakistani
campaign against India, would have profound regional
implications. Pakistan has admitted that it has a nuclear bomb,
and the present premier, Benazir Bhutto, is threatening "a third
war" against India to resolve the Kashmir issue.

These developments have polluted the regional security picture
and therefore the scope for conflict escalation is very high.
India would like to have an understanding with Pakistan and
membership into such forums as ARF may help it in creating an
appropriate environment. India would also like to participate in
the ARF to prove that it can be a dependable ally and sincere
partner in abiding by regional consensus.

India has never believed in territorial expansion, but tries
to procure sophisticated weapons such as IRBM (Intermediate Range
Ballistic Missile) and related nuclear technology important for
maintaining stability and national morale.

The development of science and technology is for positive and
constructive purposes, barring any substantial nuclear threat
from its adversaries. India is interested in forging friendly
relations with Pakistan, but there is a lack of reciprocity. The
nation's elite and the information media have failed to project
that both countries are two parts of the same coin, that they are
brothers, and there is a need to project brotherly feelings. It
is also important to note that the development of the two nations
is not possible without forgetting the strained past and hostile
present.

It is a fact that hostilities in Indo-Pakistani relations get
in the way of regional integration in South Asia and this factor
has been a major deterrent in relation to their omission from ARF
as well. However, the pertinent point to be considered is whether
the unfriendly nature of India's relations with Pakistan is not
sufficient for destabilizing the politics of the entire region.

Is this situation not giving signals of a nuclear war? If that
is so, then is it not a compelling factor to trap these two in
the security related discussions at a regional level? The
question, then, is whether the ASEAN states, which share a common
maritime border with India, extending from Myanmar to Indonesia,
should close their eyes towards happenings in the subcontinent?

We do find that India and Southeast Asia have been expressing
a common threat perception in the post Cold War era. Their
opinions do converge on issues of ethnic import, transnational
support of terrorism, secessionism, fundamentalism and the
protection of human rights. The ASEAN and Indian diplomats have
been expressing similar viewpoints at the international fora and
they have a consensus on the following:

(a) the emerging vacuum in Southeast Asia after the American
withdrawal;

(b) the forceful assertion of Chinese territorial claims
over South China Sea;

(d) the naval build up at Hanggyi and Coco Islands in
Myanmar;

(e) the threat of nuclear holocaust in the Korean peninsula
and Indian subcontinent,

(f) and the continuing civil war in Cambodia.

These were the motivating factors that influenced ASEAN to
offer sectoral dialog partnership status to India. ASEAN and
India have accelerated trade, investment, tourism, science and
technology ties since 1992 and strings of eternal friendship are
constantly probed. Despite such positive developments, India is
the single significant nation from the region to have been left
out of the ARF. It is difficult to comprehend reasons behind
India's omission. Suffice it to say that the unhappy legacies of
the Cold War era, the history of a profound communication gap,
the unfriendly attitudes of its immediate neighbors and the slow
pace of economic development, etc. are getting in the way of
improved cooperation.

At present, India's convergence of interests with the ASEAN
countries, both in the security and economic realm, motivates it
to extend cooperation to the ARF for constructive interaction and
regional peace. A new environment of friendship and cooperation
have emerged after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the end
of the Cold War and the impending removal of trade barriers.
Other factors which helped in the evolution of convergence of
interests are:

(a) the diminishing role of ideology;

(b) the collective concern for regional security threats,
i.e., Cambodia, Spratlys, East Timor and Kashmir;

(d) growing interaction with the ASEAN states in defense
matters and regular joint naval exercises with Indonesia,
Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Australia and the United States.

Thus India is ready to offer cooperation to ARF to
participate in discussions to resolve conflicts and promote
better understanding.

Another interesting feature of the ARF is that it gives
emphasis to consensus in decision making and is bound to prove
deterrence for the aggressor. What is more striking is that one
can present their security perception in a friendly atmosphere in
such forums and there would be a better understanding of each
other's concerns.

This forum, whose basic aim is to resolve misunderstanding and
suggest constructive measures, would prove useful to diffuse the
tense atmosphere. Again, India, which is projected as a hegemony
by some of its neighbors and was viewed as such by the ASEAN in
the past, may be projected more objectively with the association
of such forums.

The countries of this region have to make their own history
and overtake the developments of the most developed nations on
other side of the globe. They must explore avenues for
accommodating the interests of nations on the periphery, either
spontaneously or as an affirmative action. There is no point in
ignoring a willing partner. Instead willing partners should be
embraced in order to consolidate regional power for regional
security and uninterrupted prosperity.

Dr. Ganganath Jha is Associate Professor in the Division of
Southeast Asian Studies, School of International Studies,
Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

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