INDEF: DHE SDA policy could strengthen Himbara's foreign exchange liquidity

Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) stated that the new natural resource export foreign exchange (DHE SDA) policy has the potential to strengthen foreign exchange liquidity at Himbara (Association of State-Owned Banks).

“The DHE SDA policy, fully effective from June 2026, has the potential to significantly strengthen Himbara’s foreign currency liquidity position,” said INDEF’s Head of the Centre for Macroeconomics and Finance, M Rizal Taufikurahman.

With the requirement to place natural resource export foreign exchange domestically, Rizal argued that dollar flows from coal, palm oil (CPO), minerals, and oil and gas sectors, which have largely been held overseas, would flow more into the national banking system.

Rizal noted this is important given the high external pressures throughout 2026, reflected in rupiah volatility nearing Rp17,000–17,300 per US dollar, and a decline in foreign reserves from approximately $151.9bn to $148.2bn by end-March 2026.

Rizal also assessed market sentiment towards Himbara shares as positive, as the policy could strengthen funding structures and treasury income potential amid persistently high global interest rates.

However, Rizal highlighted that the policy’s effectiveness still heavily depends on implementation design and exporters’ confidence. If the DHE placement scheme is deemed too rigid and uncompetitive in terms of flexibility or yield, there is a risk exporters may adjust transactions, including shifting foreign exchange placements overseas or engaging in under-invoicing practices.

Therefore, Rizal said DHE SDA could serve as an important buffer to bolster external resilience and financial sector stability, but it is not an automatic standalone solution for maintaining the rupiah.

“Fundamental factors such as foreign capital flows, fiscal credibility, Government Securities (SBN) yields, and investor perceptions of Indonesia’s economic outlook remain the primary determinants of national financial sector stability,” he added.