In the shadow of tomorrow

Every five years, as the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) prepares to open its meeting, political groupings announce their candidates for national president.

Since 1978 the choice has always been the incumbent President Soeharto and current political activity looks like history repeating itself but with a twist.

With the election of the national president, by the country's highest law-making body, still seven months away, the government- backed Golkar has moved quicker than it did in the 1993 presidential election.

On Monday, the Golkar faction in the House of Representatives surprised the nation by calling on its central executive board to announce Soeharto as its national presidential candidate for the 1998/2003 term.

The Golkar faction's statement, made by its chairman Moestahid Astari, has provoked reactions from several political observers.

Harmawan Sulistyo, from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), said the early announcement showed that there was a more transparent political condition now. Another observer said Moestahid was getting the jump on everyone in order to secure a position in the next cabinet.

Arbi Sanit, a political observer from the University of Indonesia, said everybody knows that Golkar will support Soeharto's re-election and Moestahid, who is also vice secretary- general of the party, was just trying to collect more points for his own position.

We were also surprised by Golkar's statement because in October last year the party announced its criteria for a national presidential candidate. Any citizen could easily understand that this criteria had been made to ensure Soeharto's qualification.

That the criteria fell short of mentioning his name was perhaps meant to illustrate the party's political shyness. Or, its leaders might have believed that this new method was sophisticated politics.

On the other hand, many thinking people believe that the minority United Development Party (PPP) will not have the guts to oppose Soeharto's re-election. And the attitude of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) will be regarded as worthless by the ruling majority since the party was tragically crushed in this year's general election.

But Moestahid's activity is surely part of the political game witnessed every five years among elite politicians. Other pastimes include the joint statement of support by social groups and the so-called joint political prayer sayings by seasonal political activists.

What promises to be a more interesting event is the announcement of candidates for vice president. Political factions display more courage in this field although the president-elect will have the last say in regard to the vice president-elect since they must work side by side.

The important consideration in the vice presidential nomination has always been that the figure be able to take over from the head of state. This is especially the case for the next term, which is very strategic, because Soeharto would be too old to run the country.

This consideration has been floating around for two decades but no prediction about Soeharto's health has proven to be correct. This includes Soeharto's own statement in his autobiography Soeharto: Pikiran, Ucapan dan Tindakan Saya (Soeharto: My thoughts, Sayings and Deeds), which was published in 1988.

In the book, Soeharto, then 67, said he believed he was serving his final term as president. "If I can accomplish this term in 1993, I'll be 72 when I resign." This is old enough, he added. Today, Soeharto is as healthy as when he made this statement.

But why is there so much fuss about Soeharto? China's paramount leader Deng Xiaoping started political reform at the age of 75 and Conrad Adenauer, who was elected West German chancellor at the age of 73 in 1949, said: "life begins at 80."

Political elites can spend their time speaking about presidential candidates but, for the citizens, there are more pressing problems today. These include: how to handle the currency crisis, whether our economic fundamentals are really strong and how to face the devastating effects of a long drought.