In the shadow of tomorrow

In the shadow of tomorrow

Every five years, as the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR)
prepares to open its meeting, political groupings announce their
candidates for national president.

Since 1978 the choice has always been the incumbent President
Soeharto and current political activity looks like history
repeating itself but with a twist.

With the election of the national president, by the country's
highest law-making body, still seven months away, the government-
backed Golkar has moved quicker than it did in the 1993
presidential election.

On Monday, the Golkar faction in the House of Representatives
surprised the nation by calling on its central executive board to
announce Soeharto as its national presidential candidate for the
1998/2003 term.

The Golkar faction's statement, made by its chairman Moestahid
Astari, has provoked reactions from several political observers.

Harmawan Sulistyo, from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences
(LIPI), said the early announcement showed that there was a more
transparent political condition now. Another observer said
Moestahid was getting the jump on everyone in order to secure a
position in the next cabinet.

Arbi Sanit, a political observer from the University of
Indonesia, said everybody knows that Golkar will support
Soeharto's re-election and Moestahid, who is also vice secretary-
general of the party, was just trying to collect more points for
his own position.

We were also surprised by Golkar's statement because in
October last year the party announced its criteria for a national
presidential candidate. Any citizen could easily understand that
this criteria had been made to ensure Soeharto's qualification.

That the criteria fell short of mentioning his name was
perhaps meant to illustrate the party's political shyness. Or,
its leaders might have believed that this new method was
sophisticated politics.

On the other hand, many thinking people believe that the
minority United Development Party (PPP) will not have the guts to
oppose Soeharto's re-election. And the attitude of the Indonesian
Democratic Party (PDI) will be regarded as worthless by the
ruling majority since the party was tragically crushed in this
year's general election.

But Moestahid's activity is surely part of the political game
witnessed every five years among elite politicians. Other
pastimes include the joint statement of support by social groups
and the so-called joint political prayer sayings by seasonal
political activists.

What promises to be a more interesting event is the
announcement of candidates for vice president. Political factions
display more courage in this field although the president-elect
will have the last say in regard to the vice president-elect
since they must work side by side.

The important consideration in the vice presidential
nomination has always been that the figure be able to take over
from the head of state. This is especially the case for the next
term, which is very strategic, because Soeharto would be too old
to run the country.

This consideration has been floating around for two decades
but no prediction about Soeharto's health has proven to be
correct. This includes Soeharto's own statement in his
autobiography Soeharto: Pikiran, Ucapan dan Tindakan Saya
(Soeharto: My thoughts, Sayings and Deeds), which was published
in 1988.

In the book, Soeharto, then 67, said he believed he was
serving his final term as president. "If I can accomplish this
term in 1993, I'll be 72 when I resign." This is old enough, he
added. Today, Soeharto is as healthy as when he made this
statement.

But why is there so much fuss about Soeharto? China's
paramount leader Deng Xiaoping started political reform at the
age of 75 and Conrad Adenauer, who was elected West German
chancellor at the age of 73 in 1949, said: "life begins at 80."

Political elites can spend their time speaking about
presidential candidates but, for the citizens, there are more
pressing problems today. These include: how to handle the
currency crisis, whether our economic fundamentals are really
strong and how to face the devastating effects of a long drought.