In anticipation of ASEAN-10

In anticipation of ASEAN-10

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) just added
its seventh member, yet another step toward a united Southeast
Asia. Johanna Son of Inter Press Service reports.

BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN: It took nearly three decades for it to
happen, but the once-utopian vision of a united Southeast Asia is
finally coming into clear focus.

Since 1967 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
has been an `incomplete' organization, one that claimed to be the
regional grouping but had nearly half of the envisioned ten
member nations outside its orbit due to the Cold War's
ideological battles.

Thus, until late July, the organization that was formed in
part as a bulwark against communism's spread through Indochina,
had just six members: Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.

On July 28, Cambodia obtained observer status while communist
Vietnam was admitted to ASEAN in rites here -- the biggest push
yet toward realizing the vision of a united Southeast Asia that
has eluded the region for 28 years since ASEAN was created.

"With Vietnam's entry, a very important step has now been
built towards reaching the target of making ASEAN truly the
association of all Southeast Asian nations," Malaysian Foreign
Minister Abdullah Badawi said at the ASEAN foreign ministers'
meeting held last month in Bandar Seri Begawan.

And while the three other non-ASEAN countries in the region --
Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar -- have yet to become full members,
their admission seems to be only a matter of time.

This December, the heads of government of all ten Southeast
Asian countries for the first time will meet in Bangkok, on the
occasion of ASEAN leaders' fifth summit.

Laos, which became an observer in 1992 along with Vietnam,
says it hopes to become an ASEAN member in 1997, when the
organization turns 30.

Myanmar, a pariah in much of the West, has been attending the
ASEAN ministerial meeting as the host country's guest for two
years now. In Brunei, it acceded to the Treaty of Amity and
Cooperation, one of the steps toward membership.

Two days after Myanmar freed Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi
from six years of house arrest on July 10, Myanmarese Foreign
Minister U Ohn Gyaw wrote Brunei to say it would seek observer
status, a proposal to be taken up next year at the earliest.

All these reflect the sea change that has occurred in
Southeast Asia since the time the Cold War pitted communist
Indochina against capitalist ASEAN.

ASEAN was formed at a time when the United States was sending
troops to Vietnam to curb communism's march. ASEAN shunned Soviet
ally Hanoi for years due to its ideology and its 1978 invasion of
Cambodia.

But communist Hanoi began implementing market reforms in the
late 1980s. Then came the 1991 Paris peace pact that settled the
Cambodian conflict, thawing regional tensions. Since then, ASEAN
and Indochinese leaders have exchanged visits, while businessmen
clinched deals.

Vietnam has spent the past few years normalizing ties with the
rest of the world. Hanoi and Washington restored formal ties a
few weeks ago, just as the region marked the 20th year since the
Vietnam War ended.

It is hard to fix a timetable for when the ASEAN-7 will become
the ASEAN-10, but many expect it before the end of the century.

Philippine Foreign Undersecretary Rodolfo Severino says there
are few political hurdles to Laos and Cambodia's membership, but
adds they have to do more in economic reforms to prepare them for
joining the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) too.

"If it's just political, there's no problem,' Severino said
in an interview with IPS. "But there are other things to consider
and the most complicated is AFTA."

To be sure, Cambodia and Laos only recently opened their
economies and are not yet ready to start a tariff reduction
scheme under AFTA. Cambodian Foreign Minister Ung Huot his
country's economy is "still weak after two decades of war" and
must wean itself from an "aid-led" economy.

Vietnam joined AFTA upon entering ASEAN, but its tariff
reduction scheme will be decided by the national assembly in
September, AFTA commits countries to start reducing tariffs
gradually from January 1996 to 2003, when tariffs would be zero.

ASEAN countries are keen to see Vietnam successfully hurdle
the transition to a market economy, hoping to see it become a
model for economic liberalization for other emerging economies.

Laos is moving cautiously to ASEAN membership because it lacks
personnel and resources to attend the group' more than 200
meetings a year. But ASEAN officials say they would welcome
Vientiane when it is ready and are already training Indochinese
nations in areas ranging from diplomacy to English.

Myanmar, shunned by much of the world since the military junta
took power in 1988 and cracked down on pro-democracy rallyists,
may well be at the tail-end of aspirants' list to ASEAN.

Yangon's critics say it remains to be seen if Suu Kyi's
release will lead to more political openness. Washington, for
instance, says it would maintain sanctions against Myanmar for
now.

Indonesian foreign Minister Ali Alatas though Yangon's move
showed that ASEAN's policy of `constructive engagement' was
working, and that Myanmar's efforts toward national
reconciliation "deserve all the encouragement that we can give".

He said recent events in Myanmar were "a vindication of
ASEAN's faith in the capacity of the (Myanmar) people to solve
their own problems and achieve national reconciliation without
undue outside interference".

Still, ASEAN's expansion raises new challenges. Indeed, it may
become harder to reach consensus -- decision making, ASEAN style
-- among a larger group.

Said Badawi: "We must take care to ensure that the increase in
numbers does not reduce ASEAN's cohesiveness or diminish its
relevance and effectiveness. An expanded ASEAN should be a
stronger ASEAN."

Others point to latent rivalries between Vietnam and ASEAN
countries like Indonesia and the Philippines for foreign
investments. Already, stiff competition from Hanoi has driven the
two countries to liberalize further foreign investment rules.

Thailand and Vietnam are long-time rivals for influence in
Cambodia, a situation that may complicate ASEAN unity in the
future though it is now overshadowed by a desire to see all ten
Southeast Asian nations under one banner.

But although Myanmar and the Indochinese nations' formal
political entry into ASEAN is proceeding faster than the region's
economic integration, trade and investment ties are nevertheless
getting stronger, perhaps the clearest sign of the economic
dynamism sweeping Southeast Asia.

Vietnam's trade with ASEAN has risen by 27 percent yearly
since 1990 and ASEAN nations take in up to 50 percent of
Vietnam's exports. Singapore and Malaysia are among the top six
investors in Vietnam since 1988.

Laos's trade with ASEAN is rising, and ASEAN countries account
for nearly half of total value of foreign investments in Laos.
Even Myanmar, shifting from central planning under the
`Myanmarese Way to Socialism' to market-oriented policies, is an
emerging site for foreign, especially Asian, money.

Singapore premier Goh Chok Tong visited Myanmar last year,
followed by the leaders of Laos and Vietnam and Indonesian trade
officials. Myanmarese figures show Singapore and Thailand as the
second and third largest investors since 1989. First is France,
while the United States is fourth despite official sanctions.

After all, as Brunei Foreign Minister Prince Mohamed Bolkiah
said, ASEAN's expansion starting with Vietnam's entry "not only
means expanded territory but also a bigger market" of 420 million
-- one that can help sustain the region's impressive growth.

-- IPS

Window A: It is hard to fix a timetable for when the ASEAN-7 will
become the ASEAN-10, but many expect it before the end of the century.

Window B: ASEAN's expansion raises new challenges. Indeed, it may
become harder to reach consensus -- decision-making, ASEAN style --
among a larger group.