IMF Projection: Global Economic Growth to Slow to 3.1 Percent in 2026

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again lowered its projection for global economic growth in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. Geopolitical pressures, particularly conflicts in the Middle East, along with a surge in energy prices, are the main factors overshadowing the world’s economic recovery. In its latest report, released on Tuesday (14/4/2026), the IMF projects global economic growth for 2026 at 3.1 percent. The IMF assesses that the global economy, which previously showed signs of stabilisation, now faces new pressures. Geopolitical conflicts are seen as disrupting the recovery momentum that had formed after the Covid-19 pandemic and the normalisation of global monetary policy. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated that the conflicts have halted global economic momentum and significantly increased inflationary pressures. Disruptions to major global energy distribution routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, have driven up prices, which then spill over into global inflation. The IMF estimates that global inflation will rise to around 4.4 percent in 2026, higher than previous projections. This rise in energy prices not only impacts advanced economies but also heavily burdens developing countries, especially those dependent on energy imports. In the baseline scenario, the IMF assumes the conflict will ease in the short term. However, if the conflict persists longer, its impact on the global economy is expected to be much deeper. The IMF even warns that in a worse-case scenario, global economic growth could fall to around 2 percent. This is a level typically associated with global recession conditions. The IMF’s WEO report shows that the impact of the economic slowdown is not evenly distributed across the world.