ILO: Global shocks push world workers' real incomes down by $3 trillion

Moscow — The International Labour Organization (ILO) has warned that global workers’ real incomes could shrink by up to USD 3 trillion (approximately Rp53 quadrillion) in 2027 if oil prices rise by 50 percent compared with early 2026.

In the report released on Monday, the ILO said the situation in the Middle East is increasingly affecting employment, working conditions, and incomes across regions worldwide.

Disruptions to transport routes and supply chains, a weakening tourism sector, and migration restrictions are cited as key drivers of the economic pressures.

Under the 50 percent oil-price increase scenario, global working hours are expected to fall by 0.5 percent in 2026 and 1.1 percent in 2027.

The decline equates to around 14 million full-time jobs lost in 2026 and 38 million in 2027, according to the report.

The ILO also projects workers’ real incomes to fall 1.1 percent or around USD 1.1 trillion in 2026 and to reach 3 percent or around USD 3 trillion in 2027.

Meanwhile, the global unemployment rate is projected to rise gradually, by 0.1 percentage point this year and by 0.5 percentage points in 2027.

The UN agency also notes that remittance flows, a key source of income for many families in South Asia and Southeast Asia, are weakening and showing signs of decline in a number of countries.

According to the ILO, the most affected region is the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific.

The crisis is also weighing on migrant workers, particularly in Gulf countries, due to lower demand for labour in construction, hospitality, and transportation.