IHSG Today Depends on Inflation Data and B50 Implementation

The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) opened trading on Wednesday (1/7) with fluctuations. After a slight dip, the index moved into positive territory. The movement is largely dependent on the release of key domestic economic data and the implementation of the B50 programme. Market players are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach, anticipating the release of crucial domestic economic data that will determine the market’s direction at the start of the second half of 2026. Investor focus is primarily on the June 2026 inflation data, Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI, and the May 2026 trade balance. The market consensus expects inflation to rise to 3.2 percent year-on-year (yoy), driven by increasing food prices and adjustments to non-subsidised fuel prices. The trade surplus is predicted to widen to 4 billion US dollars. In addition to macro data, the government began the gradual implementation of the B50 biodiesel programme on 1 July 2026. This policy is expected to be a positive catalyst for stocks in the energy and crude palm oil (CPO) sectors. From an external perspective, the strengthening of the US Dollar Index (DXY) to 101.26 is adding pressure. US job openings data (JOLTS), which reached 7.594 million, reinforces expectations that the US central bank, The Fed, will maintain high interest rates for a longer period. Investors are also monitoring a speech by Fed Governor Kevin Warsh at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, as well as the release of manufacturing data from China and the US. Technically, the opportunity for the IHSG to strengthen remains open if domestic inflation and trade balance data exceed market expectations, supported by conducive global conditions.