IHSG Today Depends on Inflation Data and B50 Implementation
The Indonesia Composite Index (JCI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) opened with fluctuations during Wednesday morning trading. After a slight decline, the index subsequently moved upwards into the green zone.
The Lotus Andalan Sekuritas research team projects that the index’s movement today will tend to be volatile. Market players are currently in a ‘wait and see’ mode, awaiting the release of a series of crucial domestic economic data to determine the market’s direction at the start of the second half of 2026.
Investor focus is primarily directed towards the June 2026 inflation data, the Indonesian Manufacturing PMI, and the May 2026 trade balance. Market consensus expects inflation to rise to a level of 3.2 per cent year-on-year (yoy), driven by rising food prices and adjustments to non-subsidised fuel prices. On the other hand, the trade balance surplus is predicted to widen to reach 4 billion US dollars.
In addition to macro data, starting 1 July 2026, the government will gradually begin implementing the B50 programme. This policy is expected to serve as a positive catalyst for issuers in the energy and Crude Palm Oil (CPO) sectors.
From an external perspective, the strengthening of the US Dollar Index (DXY) to the 101.26 level provides additional pressure. US job vacancy data (JOLTS), which reached 7.594 million, has strengthened expectations that the US central bank, the Fed, will maintain high interest rates for a longer period (‘higher for longer’).
Investors are also closely monitoring the speech by Fed Governor Kevin Warsh at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, as well as the release of manufacturing data from China (Caixin Manufacturing PMI) and the US (ISM Manufacturing PMI). Uncertainty regarding US-Iran peace negotiations also remains a point of concern, even though global oil prices are observed to be weakening.
Technically, the opportunity for the JCI to strengthen remains open if domestic inflation and trade balance data exceed market expectations, supported by conducive global conditions.