IHSG strengthens amid 'wait and see' over MSCI August review
The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) strengthened on Wednesday as market participants adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of MSCI Inc.’s review of global equities, including Indonesian shares, for the August 2026 period.
The IHSG opened up 9.88 points, or 0.16 percent, at 6,277.76. Meanwhile, the LQ45 index of 45 leading stocks rose 1.12 points, or 0.18 percent, to 626.91.
“The IHSG has the opportunity to retest 6,377, with a breakout of that level opening room for strengthening towards 6,463-6,500. Conversely, a decline below 6,264 risks bringing the IHSG to test 6,233, then 6,186 and 6,106,” said Liza Camelia Suryanata, Head of Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, in her research note in Jakarta on Wednesday.
Domestically, market participants are awaiting the MSCI Index Review announcement scheduled for 12 August 2026 at around 11.00 p.m. Central European Summer Time (CEST), or 13 August 2026 at around 4.00 a.m. Western Indonesia Time (WIB).
Market participants also hope that steps taken by regulators on domestic capital market reform will provide an opportunity for MSCI to immediately lift the freeze status on Indonesian shares in the August 2026 Index Review.
In addition, market participants continue to monitor the latest developments regarding the definitive candidate for Bank Indonesia (BI) governor, following the nomination of Destry Damayanti as the sole candidate for BI governor, which is viewed positively as it provides certainty and maintains monetary policy continuity after the resignation of Perry Warjiyo.
Meanwhile, tax revenue until the end of July 2026 reached Rp1,209.6 trillion, or 51.31 percent of the state budget target, growing 22.17 percent year on year (yoy) from the previous Rp990.01 trillion.
However, the government still faces a potential shortfall of Rp46.9 trillion, with a 2026 revenue outlook of Rp2,310.8 trillion, or around 98 percent of the target.
On the other hand, the government continues to strengthen regulations and incentives to encourage private investment in the renewable energy sector, including through Presidential Regulation 112/2022 and Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation 19/2025, as well as tax, import and licensing facilities. These policies are directed at supporting the target of developing solar power plants of up to 100 GW.
From abroad, tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated again after Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz would not be opened until its demands were met. Ship traffic through the strait has declined sharply, increasing the risk of disruption to global energy supplies.
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts through Oman and Qatar are still ongoing and are said to have entered an important stage.
On the other hand, market participants are awaiting US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July 2026, which is an important determinant for expectations of the Federal Reserve’s policy after the market began to split over the possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike in September 2026.
US inflation data that is higher than expected could strengthen expectations of tightening, while lower inflation could open room for policy easing. In addition, market participants will observe Producer Price Index (PPI) data as further confirmation of the direction of price pressures.
Meanwhile, energy prices strengthened again amid uncertainty over the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude rising 1.72 percent to around 89 US dollars per barrel and WTI rising 1.30 percent to above 83 US dollars per barrel.
Then, thermal coal prices rose 0.23 percent to 129.3 US dollars per tonne, gold prices fell 0.52 percent to 4,368 US dollars per ounce due to profit-taking, copper prices rose 0.3 percent to above 6.6 US dollars per lb, tin prices rose 0.40 percent to 55,752 US dollars per tonne, while nickel fell 0.74 percent to 16,820 US dollars per tonne due to expectations of increased supply from Indonesia.
European stock markets moved mixed on Tuesday (11/08), with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.01 percent, the UK FTSE 100 down 0.17 percent, the German DAX up 0.30 percent, and the French CAC 40 down 0.1 percent.
Meanwhile, US Wall Street markets fell across the board on Tuesday (11/08), with the S&P 500 down 0.40 percent to 7,725.76, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.60 percent to 26,445.45, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.30 percent to 53,791.97.
Regional Asian stock markets this morning included the Nikkei index up 0.13 percent to 67,055.00, the Shanghai index up 0.08 percent to 3,937.4, the Kospi index up 3.52 percent to 6,568.41, the Hang Seng index down 1.15 percent to 25,328.81, and the Straits Times index up 0.36 percent to 5,733.26.