IHSG Potentially Volatile Ahead of MSCI Announcement

Jakarta (ANTARA) - Market analyst from Panin Sekuritas, Reydi Octa, assesses that the movement of the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) has the potential to be volatile ahead of the announcement of the global MSCI index review results, scheduled for 12 May 2026 local time.

“Ahead of the MSCI announcement, the IHSG has the potential to move volatile with a wait-and-see tendency because foreign investors are still monitoring issues related to free float, HSC, and the direction of rebalancing Indonesian stocks,” Reydi said in Jakarta on Tuesday.

At the end of the first trading session, the IHSG was recorded down 1.43 percent to 6,807.13.

According to Reydi, the direction of IHSG movement after the MSCI announcement will greatly depend on the final results of that index review.

If there is no significant weight reduction in Indonesian stocks, the market has the potential to experience a technical rebound. However, if a negative surprise emerges from the MSCI review results, foreign investor selling pressure is expected to increase again in the short term.

Reydi explained that the stocks most vulnerable to impact are issuers with low free float, high ownership concentration, and liquidity that is a concern for MSCI.

The market is currently focusing on stocks such as AMMN, BREN, DSSA, and CUAN, in addition to several large-cap stocks that have the potential to undergo index weight adjustments.

“Meanwhile, major banking stocks like BBCA, BBRI, and BMRI are expected to remain the main supports for MSCI Indonesia,” Reydi clarified.

The MSCI Index Review announcement for the May 2026 period is scheduled for Tuesday, 12 May 2026, New York time, or Wednesday, 13 May 2026, Indonesian time.

MSCI will announce the results of the periodic review (rebalancing) of its various global indices, including Indonesian stocks. This announcement includes the list of newly added stocks (additions) and stocks removed (deletions) from the index.

For the May 2026 review, MSCI is applying stricter criteria related to high stock ownership concentration or High Shareholding Concentration (HSC). This has a significant impact on several large-cap stocks in Indonesia that are at risk of being removed because they are considered to have limited free float shares.