IHSG Opens Sharply Lower at 7,660 on 4 March 2026

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange opened weaker on Wednesday, 4 March 2026, as risk-off sentiment led investors away from risk assets amid higher global oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict. The IHSG fell 256 points, or 3.53%, to 7,660. Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia Head of Research Liza Camelia Suryanata said technically the index was near an important support area. ‘Brace your portfolio for a possible deeper break (bearish flag). Volatility will remain high over the next two weeks; a wait-and-see stance is still advised,’ she said. Suryanata explained that global market sentiment is currently dominated by risk-off moves after the Middle East conflict entered its fourth day with escalations between Iran, the United States, and Israel. Iran’s strikes on energy facilities and tanker ships in the Gulf, along with the threat to close the Hormuz Strait, which channels about a fifth of global energy supply, raised concerns about disruptions to global energy distribution. The price surge in oil prices became the main factor affecting market sentiment. Brent crude hovered around $81-$82 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded around $74-$75 per barrel. Earlier, prices surged nearly 10% intraday and reached their highest level since 2024-2025. ‘The jump in oil prices heightens concerns about global inflation, as energy is a key component of production and transportation costs,’ Liza added. Investors also began pricing in the possibility that the conflict could last longer than initially expected, increasing energy inflation risks while weighing on global economic growth. The energy price surge could force central banks to keep monetary policy tight for longer. Market participants no longer fully expect a rate cut by the Federal Reserve through September 2026. Fed Funds Futures data show about a 56% probability that the Fed will hold rates at the June 2026 meeting. The IHSG is projected to remain under pressure on Wednesday, 4 March 2026. On Tuesday, 3 March 2026, IHSG closed down 0.96% at 7,939.77. The market was monitoring developments in the Middle East as well as the potential impact of the Iran-US-Israel conflict on Indonesian equities.