IHSG Likely to Move Variably Amid "Wait and See" Stance on BI Rate Policy

Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) on Wednesday is likely to move variably amid market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the direction of Bank Indonesia’s (BI) benchmark interest rate policy. The IHSG opened weaker by 31.04 points or 0.41 percent to 7,528.34. Meanwhile, the LQ45 Index of 45 leading stocks fell by 7.66 points or 1.03 percent to 736.01. “Based on technical analysis, we see the IHSG potentially weakening in a limited manner with support and resistance at 7,500-7,850,” said Associate Director of Research and Investment at Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas, Maximilianus Nico Demus alias Nico, in his analysis in Jakarta on Wednesday. Domestically, market participants are awaiting the outcome of the BI Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) this afternoon, which is projected to maintain the BI-Rate at 4.75 percent. Additionally, market participants will also monitor March 2026 credit growth data, which is projected to slow to 7.5 percent from 9.37 percent in February 2026. Meanwhile, MSCI has confirmed that reforms to the Indonesian capital market (including disclosure of shareholders above 1 percent, more detailed investor classification, the High Shareholding Concentration (HSC) framework, and a roadmap to increase the minimum free float to 15 percent) are still under evaluation. During the evaluation process, MSCI is freezing index rebalancing for Indonesian stocks for the May 2026 period. The subsequent decision will be announced in the June 2026 Market Accessibility Review. “On the other hand, MSCI’s step can also be seen as a positive medium-term signal, because if the OJK-BEI-KSEI reforms successfully enhance transparency and free float credibly, then the opportunity for increasing Indonesia’s weight in global indices going forward will be greater, ultimately opening up more sustainable inflow space,” said Nico. Internationally, after previously stating it would not be lenient with Iran, US President Donald Trump has now announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire phase with Iran to resolve an agreement. Despite the ceasefire, the US will continue to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Pakistan has asked the US not to launch new attacks and urged Trump to extend the ceasefire phase until Iran submits a new proposal and discussions can be resolved in any manner. However, Iran did not attend this week’s meeting, as Iran deems the US demands unreasonable. Additionally, Iran has not responded to the US statement on the matter, and Iran still states it will close the Strait of Hormuz if the US blockade continues. “News regarding the indefinite extension provides its own hope for market participants and investors regarding certainty to start investing,” said Nico. On Tuesday (21/4/2026) trading, European stock markets uniformly weakened, including the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.01 percent, the UK FTSE 100 down 1.06 percent, the German DAX down 0.60 percent, and the French CAC 40 down 1.14 percent. The US Wall Street markets also uniformly weakened on Tuesday (21/4/2026), including the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.59 percent to 49,149.38, the S&P 500 down 0.63 percent to 7,064.01, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.42 percent to 26,479.47. This morning’s regional Asian stock markets include the Nikkei up 180.33 points or 0.30 percent to 59,529.50, the Shanghai up 3.48 points or 0.09 percent to 4,088.55, the Hang Seng down 308.48 points or 1.16 percent to 26,179.00, and the Straits Times down 18.00 points or 0.36 percent to 4,996.96.