IHSG expected to weaken amid 'wait and see' ahead of Fed meeting
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Indonesia Stock Exchange’s (IDX) Composite Price Index (IHSG) moved lower on Monday amid a wait-and-see stance among market players ahead of the United States Federal Reserve (the Fed) meeting.
The IHSG opened down 10.63 points, or 0.17 per cent, at 6,185.80. Meanwhile, the group of 45 leading stocks, or the LQ45 Index, fell 2.07 points, or 0.34 per cent, to 612.72.
“The IHSG is expected to trend weaker, with support at the 6,060 level and resistance at 6,300. As long as the IHSG holds above the 6,060 support area, the pressure is still considered a normal correction in response to market sentiment,” said capital market observer and Founder of Republik Investor, Hendra Wardana, when contacted by Antara in Jakarta on Monday.
From abroad, Hendra said the decline in crude oil prices could ease concerns over a surge in global inflation, reduce pressure on central bank interest rate policies, and lower the risk of rising energy costs for businesses.
For Indonesia, which still imports oil, he said the fall in oil prices could also provide positive sentiment for domestic inflation, the trade balance, and rupiah exchange rate stability.
“There is positive sentiment that could limit pressure on the stock market. Brent crude, which previously approached 100 US dollars per barrel, has now corrected by around 4.5 per cent to the range of 87 US dollars per barrel,” said Hendra.
Meanwhile, market players will watch the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 28-29 July 2026 this week to determine the direction of its benchmark interest rate policy.
In addition, market players will monitor the policy direction of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE), as well as US PCE inflation data, US second quarter 2026 economic growth, US durable goods orders, the China Politburo meeting, and China’s manufacturing PMI.
Domestically, Perry Warjiyo has officially resigned from his post as Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI).
Hendra said this sentiment emerges amid a global environment that remains full of challenges, ranging from the upcoming Fed rate decision (FOMC), high volatility in global markets, to rising geopolitical tensions that make investors inclined to adopt a wait-and-see stance.
On the other hand, he said the appointment of Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti as Acting Governor of BI signals that monetary policy continuity remains assured.
According to him, Destry has been part of Bank Indonesia’s policymaking team in recent years, so the market tends to believe there will be no significant policy changes during the transition period.
“This is also reflected in the rupiah’s movement, which remains relatively stable at around Rp17,953 per US dollar, weakening by about 0.23 per cent, indicating that the market has not overreacted to the news,” said Hendra.
For investors, he explained that the position of BI Governor is one of the most vital posts, because every decision related to the benchmark interest rate, exchange rate policy, inflation control, and macroprudential policy will affect the movement of the rupiah, the bond market, and the IHSG.
In Friday’s trading (24/07) last week, European markets closed uniformly higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.14 per cent, the UK’s FTSE 100 up 0.91 per cent, Germany’s DAX up 1.36 per cent, and France’s CAC 40 up 0.88 per cent.
Meanwhile, Wall Street in the US moved in varied directions on Friday (24/07): the S&P 500 rose 0.05 per cent to 7,411.98, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.15 per cent to 28,128.81, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.46 per cent to 51,947.25.
In regional Asian markets this morning, the Nikkei rose 0.10 per cent to 64,578.00, the Shanghai index gained 1.8 per cent to 3,820.45, the Hang Seng added 0.23 per cent to 25,019.72, the Kospi slipped 1.18 per cent to 6,611.93, and the Strait Times fell 0.27 per cent to 5,572.94.