IHSG Briefly Dips Below 6,050, Where Is It Heading Next?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) trimmed some of its losses but still closed in the red at the end of session I on Wednesday (29/7/2026).

Market participants remained cautious ahead of the US central bank’s interest rate decision — the Federal Reserve (The Fed) — amid pressure from a weakening rupiah and rising global oil prices.

As of 12.00 WIB, the IHSG had fallen 37 points, or 0.60%, to 6,093.59. Throughout session I, the index touched a high of 6,174.41 and a low of 6,029.32.

The transaction value across the whole market reached Rp16.84 trillion, with a trading volume of 25.95 billion shares across 1.24 million transactions. A total of 184 shares strengthened, 489 weakened and 292 were unchanged. Market capitalisation stood at Rp10,667 trillion.

The IHSG’s decline came as the majority of sectors remained in the red. The property sector led the correction with a 4.27% drop, followed by utilities, which fell 3.21%; non-primary consumer goods, down 1.23%; industry, weaker by 0.87%; technology, down 0.65%; energy, down 0.48%; primary consumer goods, down 0.47%; healthcare, corrected 0.39%; finance, down 0.34%; and raw materials, down 0.10%.

Technically, the IHSG also remains below its 20-day Weighted Moving Average (WMA), which sits at around 6,146, while the MACD indicator shows strengthening momentum beginning to fade.

Elandry Pratama, Branch Manager of Panin Sekuritas Pondok Indah, believed the IHSG’s weakness was influenced by a combination of external and domestic sentiments.

“Externally, market sentiment remains cautious ahead of a number of global agendas, which has triggered reduced risk appetite for risky assets. Domestically, the market is also digesting the release of first-half 2026 corporate results, which have been mixed, prompting profit-taking in a number of shares that had previously risen,” he told CNBC Indonesia.

According to Elandry, selling pressure in session I remained more dominant than buying interest, although transaction activity has not shown any significant surge.

“This indicates that investors are tending to adjust their portfolios while waiting for new catalysts. As long as there is no new negative sentiment, we see this weakness as still being within a normal consolidation phase, not reflecting a change in overall market fundamentals,” he said.

For the short term, he estimated that the IHSG would continue to move in a consolidative fashion, with support at around 6,050–6,080. If that level is breached, the index could have the opportunity to test the 6,000 area. Meanwhile, resistance lies in the 6,150–6,200 range, and the chance of a rebound will grow if accompanied by inflows of foreign funds.

In a similar vein, Herditya Wicaksana, Head of Retail Research at MNC Sekuritas, said the IHSG’s movement remained in line with technical projections.

He noted that over the past week there had been foreign investor outflows from the regular market of Rp4.36 trillion. According to him, three main factors were weighing on market sentiment.

“Investors are still awaiting the outcome of the FOMC Meeting on 29 July local time, where The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50%–3.75%,” he said.

In addition, the rise in Brent and WTI crude oil prices back to around US$80 per barrel following heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has also weighed on sentiment. On the domestic side, the rupiah exchange rate, which has returned to the Rp18,000 level per US dollar, is another factor being watched by market participants.

Nevertheless, Herditya maintained his base-case projection for the IHSG at 7,000, with the bear case at 6,100, indicating that the medium-term prospects for the Indonesian stock market are still considered relatively secure despite increased short-term volatility.