IHSG Briefly Dips Below 6,050, Where Is It Heading Next?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) pared some of its losses but still closed the first trading session on Wednesday (29/7/2026) in negative territory. Market participants remained cautious ahead of the US central bank’s (Federal Reserve) interest rate decision, amid pressure from a weakening rupiah and rising global oil prices. By midday, the IHSG had fallen 37 points, or 0.60%, to 6,093.59. During the session, the index touched a high of 6,174.41 and a low of 6,029.32. Total transaction value across the market reached Rp16.84 trillion, with a trading volume of 25.95 billion shares across 1.24 million transactions. A total of 184 stocks advanced, 489 declined, and 292 remained unchanged. Market capitalisation was recorded at Rp10,667 trillion. The decline in the IHSG occurred as the majority of sectors were in the red. The property sector led the correction with a 4.27% drop, followed by utilities which weakened 3.21%. The non-primary consumer goods sector fell 1.23%, industrials declined 0.87%, technology dropped 0.65%, energy weakened 0.48%, primary consumer goods fell 0.47%, healthcare corrected 0.39%, financials declined 0.34%, and basic materials edged down 0.10%. Technically, the IHSG remains below its 20-day Weighted Moving Average (WMA) around 6,146, while the MACD indicator suggests weakening upward momentum. Branch Manager of Panin Sekuritas Pondok Indah, Elandry Pratama, assessed that the IHSG’s decline was influenced by a combination of external and domestic sentiment. “Externally, market sentiment remains cautious ahead of several global agendas, triggering reduced risk appetite for risky assets. Domestically, the market is also digesting varied first-half 2026 performance releases, prompting profit-taking in a number of stocks that had previously strengthened,” he told CNBC Indonesia. According to Elandry, selling pressure in the first session was still more dominant than buying interest, although transaction activity had not shown a significant surge. “This indicates that investors are adjusting their portfolios while waiting for new catalysts. As long as there are no new negative sentiments, we view this weakness as still within a reasonable consolidation phase, not reflecting a fundamental change in the overall market,” he said. For the short term, he expects the IHSG to move in a consolidative manner with support in the 6,050-6,080 range. If this level is breached, the index has the potential to test the 6,000 area. Meanwhile, resistance is in the 6,150-6,200 range, and a rebound opportunity will be more open if accompanied by foreign capital inflows. Similarly, Head of Research Retail at MNC Sekuritas, Herditya Wicaksana, said the IHSG’s movement remains in line with technical projections. He noted that over the past week, there has been a foreign investor outflow in the regular market of Rp4.36 trillion. According to him, three main factors are weighing on market sentiment. “Investors are still awaiting the results of the FOMC meeting on 29 July local time, where the Fed is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%,” he said. Additionally, the rise in Brent and WTI crude oil prices back to the US$80 per barrel range following increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is also pressuring sentiment. On the domestic side, the rupiah exchange rate returning to the Rp18,000 per US dollar level is also a factor being watched by market participants. Despite this, Herditya maintains his base case projection for the IHSG at 7,000, while the bear case is at 6,100, indicating that the medium-term outlook for the Indonesian stock market is considered relatively intact despite increased short-term volatility.