IHSG Bleeding: Are Stock Dividends Still Worth Pursuing?
The Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG) recently closed lower at the 5,941.07 level, marking a 4.11% decline from the previous trading session. The index has seen a significant decline since the beginning of the year, with a total drop of -3cap31.29%. This downturn was triggered by MSCI-related issues in January 2026, followed by the impact of the Iran-US conflict in March 2026, leading to a substantial decline up to the present day.
Amidst the overall movement of the index, an interesting valuation pattern is currently forming among several medium-to-large cap stocks. An evaluation of market data shows that current dividend yield levels are positioned much more attractively compared to conditions two years ago. This high level of dividend returns directly indicates that the share prices of these fundamentally strong companies are currently in a significantly discounted phase.
Based on calculations from ten cross-sector issuers, the average dividend yield has reached 10.11%. This figure represents a positive anomaly for cash-flow oriented investors, given that the current depressed stock valuations provide an opportunity for accumulation with the potential for maximum returns.
An in-depth analysis of the current valuation structure reveals that the 10.11% average dividend yield is a material leap compared to historical data. Two years ago, the average dividend yield from the same ten issuers stood at only 5.98%. This confirms that investors in the current market are receiving much higher dividend compensation as a result of much more affordable share prices.
As a concrete example, banking stocks such as PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI) and PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI) are now recording massive dividend yields of 11.78% and 11.93%, respectively. This contrasts sharply with the figures from two years ago, where BMRI’s yield was only 4.86% and BBRI’s was 4.98%. This increase in yield does not mean that issuers are suddenly distributing much larger nominal amounts of cash; rather, the primary driver is the regular market price correction, which mathematically inflates the dividend percentage relative to the purchase price.
In compiling the comparison list of issuers, the commodity sector was intentionally excluded. This analytical decision was made considering that commodity stock prices fundamentally possess excessively high volatility. Their price movements are highly sensitive to fluctuations in global commodity benchmark prices, making their inclusion risky as it could distort the overall market average yield.
In addition to volatility, the financial performance of commodity sector issuers in the 2023 fiscal year was heavily influenced by the commodity windfall cycle. The unusual surge in profits was a direct impact of global supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions and warfare, such as the situation in Ukraine and Russia. US embargoes on European nations to halt imports of all types of commodities from Russia created significant pressure on global commodity prices, including coal. The extraction of profits from these external macroeconomic conditions caused commodity stock dividend ratios to soar artificially and unsustainably. Therefore, using non-commodity sector issuers is considered far more relevant, informative, and capable of reflecting the true market valuation more objectively.